A Minimal Thermodynamic Framework for Economic Dynamics

A Minimal Thermodynamic Framework for Economic Dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Minimal Thermodynamic Framework for Economic Dynamics Luis Avalos-Trujillo, Arthur Kalb This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9255568/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the tradition of Georgescu-Roegen, we introduce a framework for economic modeling in which all inputs and outputs are aggregated into a single construct: energy. The objective of the model is to present a minimal foundational framework that describes the physical limits of economic activity, accounting for the transition out of the Malthusian equilibrium into the modern era of economic growth and a contemporary phase of degrowth. The model conceives the economic system as energy flows traversing three main reservoirs: the human system, the environment, and a finite resource. The economic module is intentionally simple in order to isolate the structural role of energy transformation in shaping long-run macroeconomic dynamics. Under simple parametric assumptions, the economy behaves like a damped harmonic oscillator, suggesting that sustained exponential growth in material throughput is incompatible with thermodynamic constraints. We also present an estimate of the parameters in the economic tradition of ''calibration'' and an illustrative simulation under constant-parameter assumptions. This framework presents several avenues for further research, including historical estimates, the impact of recycling technology on degrowth, and the expansion of economic and demographic modules. The model does not claim to exhaust the mechanisms governing economic growth, but aims to clarify the biophysical constraints within which such mechanisms must operate. Evolutionary Economics Ecological Economics Energy Georgescu-Roegen Degrowth Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9255568","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":622199133,"identity":"1ea071ab-0e5c-414f-9cfb-7a06ebc09b61","order_by":0,"name":"Luis Avalos-Trujillo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPgbGBigDCD4AsQEhLWwwLWwMDIyNM4jTgmAwNvMQpUUiufkDQ81heTb29uePbWruyJtLJD/8wJhzGI+WxDYJhmOHDdt4zhg25xx7ZrhzRpqxBOO2NLxagGQaY5tEDmNzDtthxg03EswYGLfZ4NMCdNi/NPs2ifSHzRb/DttvuJH+DahFAp+WBgnGNhug8xIMmxnbDiduuJFDwBaeh20SiX02ySC/zOztO5y84cybYolEPH7hZ09//OHDNwnbfvb2Bx9+fDtsu+F4+sYPH7fhDjEwSCBCZBSMglEwCkYBKQAAxPpStbBT0sQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Anáhuac","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luis","middleName":"","lastName":"Avalos-Trujillo","suffix":""},{"id":622199135,"identity":"e6791554-017a-4a77-93f6-6375653cf819","order_by":1,"name":"Arthur Kalb","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Arthur","middleName":"","lastName":"Kalb","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-28 23:38:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9255568/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9255568/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108493889,"identity":"8e894cc0-bdc2-4aaf-9a1f-e9275be050f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-05 10:02:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":485898,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"cyclicaleconv5anon.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9255568/v1_covered_166d9958-1d52-42f2-9ddf-4dd35c62a8d5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Minimal Thermodynamic Framework for Economic Dynamics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Evolutionary Economics, Ecological Economics, Energy, Georgescu-Roegen, Degrowth","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9255568/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9255568/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"In the tradition of Georgescu-Roegen, we introduce a framework for economic modeling in which all inputs and outputs are aggregated into a single construct: energy. 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