Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Apiaceae) Population Dynamics under Different Invasion Control Scenarios: A Matrix Model Approach

Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Apiaceae) Population Dynamics under Different Invasion Control Scenarios: A Matrix Model Approach | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 29 October 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Apiaceae) Population Dynamics under Different Invasion Control Scenarios: A Matrix Model Approach Authors : Ivan Chadin 0000-0001-6299-2285 [email protected] , Igor Dalke , Ilya Zakhozhiy , Yulya Smotrina , and Vladislav Mikhailov Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176173038.86043598/v1 187 views 112 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract We used an age × stage matrix model to analyze the population dynamics of Heracleum mantegazzianum (giant hogweed) during its introduction and establishment phases. The establishment phase, characterized by a stable monostand, showed a relatively low potential growth rate (λ = 1.097). The model analysis revealed that the transition of plants from their first to second year has the greatest influence on population growth, explaining the high growth rate (λ = 1.662) observed in the competitor-free introduction phase. We then projected population dynamics under two control methods. Both herbicide application and inflorescence cutting are highly sensitive to implementation efficacy. Glyphosate-based herbicides achieve eradication in 3–4 years only with a 97–98% annual mortality rate and complete removal of generative plants; this timeline extends to 6 years if mortality falls to 80%. Inflorescence cutting requires a minimum of seven years, depending on the 100% removal of generative plants annually. A decrease in efficacy of just 1% dramatically prolongs eradication to 34 years. Our results highlight the critical importance of nearly perfect control execution and underscore the bet-hedging strategy’s role in the weed’s resilience. Due to the bet-hedging strategy of H. mantegazzianum, achieving more than 90% annual mortality with glyphosate is impractical. A more optimal strategy targets only generative plants. This seven-year eradication program offers greater cost-effectiveness, reduced environmental impact, and lower operational precision requirements. Supplementary Material File (main.pdf) Download 6.96 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 29 October 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords 1.100: population ecology 1: field of ecology 2.020: biological invasion 2.070: population dynamics 2: topic bet-hedging eradication efficacy heracleum mantegazzianum invasion management matrix model Authors Affiliations Ivan Chadin 0000-0001-6299-2285 [email protected] Institute of Biology of Komi Science Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Igor Dalke Institute of Biology of Komi Science Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Ilya Zakhozhiy Institute of Biology of Komi Science Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Yulya Smotrina Syktyvkar State University View all articles by this author Vladislav Mikhailov Syktyvkar State University View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 187 views 112 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ivan Chadin, Igor Dalke, Ilya Zakhozhiy, et al. Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier & Levier (Apiaceae) Population Dynamics under Different Invasion Control Scenarios: A Matrix Model Approach. Authorea . 29 October 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176173038.86043598/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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