Future Land Use Scenarios for Pasture in the Brazilian Cerrado: Agriculture, Livestock and Regeneration

Future Land Use Scenarios for Pasture in the Brazilian Cerrado: Agriculture, Livestock and Regeneration | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Future Land Use Scenarios for Pasture in the Brazilian Cerrado: Agriculture, Livestock and Regeneration Maria O Hunter, Alexandre de Siqueira Pinto, Claudinei Oliveira dos Santos, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8396771/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Pastures cover approximately 47 Mha (24%) of the Brazilian Cerrado and vary widely in productivity. As Brazil seeks to expand soybean and livestock production while advancing climate and conservation commitments, an important regional question is whether projected demand can be accommodated without additional deforestation. We develop two zero-deforestation land-use scenarios for 2030 that integrate projected cattle herd growth and soybean expansion with spatially explicit pasture intensification. Using the Century ecosystem model, we estimate changes in pasture carrying capacity, allocate a projected herd of 61 million animal units, identify areas suitable for soybean expansion, and evaluate the regeneration potential of remaining pasturelands. We then quantify changes in aboveground, belowground, and soil carbon stocks through 2050 relative to a business-as-usual baseline. Under modeled biophysical conditions and assuming rapid adoption of improved pasture management, upgrading ~13 Mha of low- and medium-vigor pasture could allow livestock production to occupy ~29 Mha, freeing 3.1 Mha for soybean expansion and ~18 Mha for native vegetation regeneration or alternative uses. These land-use transitions increase regional carbon stocks by up to 0.23 Pg by 2030 and 0.47 Pg by 2050. While implementation depends on institutional, financial, and adoption constraints, the scenarios illustrate the potential for integrated land-use planning to support agricultural production, climate mitigation, and ecosystem restoration within the Cerrado. Agricultural Economics & Policy Ecological Modeling Environmental Policy Agricultural production Soil carbon Deforestation Conservation CENTURY model Cattle Stocking Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files ESM1IGR.pdf ESM 1 Dominant land-use by immediate geographic regions (IGR) within the Brazilian Cerrado considering high vigor pasture and soy ESM2SoyValidation.pdf ESM 2 Validation and implementation of modeled Soybean production in the Brazilian Cerrado ESM3VariableMapping.pdf ESM 3 Detailed Century 4.5 model carbon pool mapping and variable codes ESM3VariableMapping.pdf ESM 3 Detailed Century 4.5 model carbon pool mapping and variable codes ESM4CerradoSoilsClimate.pdf ESM 4 Meteorological data (average 1958-2023) and soil properties of the Brazilian Cerrado ESM5MeanCarbonStocks.pdf ESM 5 Mean and standard deviation of carbon stocks (Mg ha-1) in future land use scenarios ESM5MeanCarbonStocks.pdf ESM 5 Mean and standard deviation of carbon stocks (Mg ha-1) in future land use scenarios Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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