How a positive tipping point cascade in power, transport and heating can accelerate the low-carbon transition

How a positive tipping point cascade in power, transport and heating can accelerate the low-carbon transition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article How a positive tipping point cascade in power, transport and heating can accelerate the low-carbon transition Femke Nijsse, Simon Sharpe, Rishi Sahastrabuddhe, Cormac Lynch, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6577360/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The energy system is becoming increasingly intertwined due to the electrification of transport and heating. At the same time, renewable electricity is growing rapidly, which carries risks and opportunities for speeding up the transition. Opportunities involve lowered electricity costs, vehicle-to-grid applications, repurposed EV batteries for grid applications and cross-sectoral induced innovation. However, fast renewable electrification can be constrained by land availability, storage needs and curtailment. Here, we model climate policies in four sectors: power, light and heavy road transport, and residential heating. We find that phase-outs and mandates are most effective in bringing down costs and creating cross-sectoral opportunities. Both a coal phase-out and a zero-emission light-duty vehicle mandate can bring forward the cost-parity point for clean (versus fossil) technology in other sectors by over a year in specific countries. Our results demonstrate that coordinated deployment policies can rapidly bring down the costs of green technologies across sectors. Scientific community and society/Business and industry/Technology Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Scientific community and society/Geography Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6577360","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":455052334,"identity":"875f5dca-84fe-4d60-b9f3-de2cda998af2","order_by":0,"name":"Femke 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