The Effects of Female Immigration on the U.S. Childcare Market: Evidence from Prices and Earnings

The Effects of Female Immigration on the U.S. Childcare Market: Evidence from Prices and Earnings | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Effects of Female Immigration on the U.S. Childcare Market: Evidence from Prices and Earnings Eunjung Jee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8051113/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Review of Economics of the Household → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In a market-based childcare system with limited public support, many American families purchase formal childcare, bearing the full cost themselves. While previous studies show low-skill immigration helps U.S-born women outsource household labor, the mechanism through childcare prices is less clear. This paper examines this effect, focusing on female immigration and U.S. childcare prices and worker earnings from 2010 to 2019. Using a county-level fixed-effects model with data from the National Database of Childcare Prices (NDCP) and the Annual Social and Economic Supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC), the study analyzes how the female immigrant labor force share affects prices across center-based, family daycare, and private household settings. Findings indicate a 10% increase in the female immigrant share is associated with a small, significant decrease in family day care prices (0.17–0.22%) but not center-based care prices. The impact on worker earnings is more substantial: the same 10% increase is linked to a 4% reduction in family daycare worker earnings, with no significant effects in other settings. This finding suggests that the slight price reduction for family daycare, coinciding with significantly reduced worker earnings, may be insufficient to stimulate maternal employment or yield significant economic advantages for low-income families. JEL Codes : J13, J15, J39 Childcare Prices Female Immigration Care Work Family Daycare Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Review of Economics of the Household → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 26 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 06 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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