Climate Change Hotspots for Türkiye

Abstract Globally, each region will be affected by climate change at different risk levels depending on various indicators (e.g., increased average temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, and wildfires). Therefore, identifying the “hotspots” that will be the most affected areas by climate change in the future is a crucial step for the rapid adaptation of these regions to the changing climate. A region’s vulnerability to climate change also depends on the change in fundamental variables, i.e., temperature and precipitation, and the variability and frequency of these parameters. The study estimated the Standard Euclidean Distance (SED) for Türkiye using high-resolution climate data and examined which regions would be the most affected in the near (2024-2049), medium (2049-2074), and distant (2074-2099) future. The projections were made using the RegCM4.4 driven by MPI-ESM-MR under the pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenario. The results indicate that the Mediterranean, Eastern Anatolia, and Southeastern Anatolia are the hotspot regions in Türkiye. In line with the findings, it is necessary to minimize the possible damage by taking the required precautions in these regions.