Analyzing Chinese Microblogs via Dynamic Stackelberg Games and Graph ODEs

Analyzing Chinese Microblogs via Dynamic Stackelberg Games and Graph ODEs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analyzing Chinese Microblogs via Dynamic Stackelberg Games and Graph ODEs Xiaofeng Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9385001/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In recent years, social media platforms have become central arenas for the generation and diffusion of public opinion, exhibiting pronounced leader–follower hierarchical game dynamics. Existing models often face a theoretical gap between strategic decision-making and continuous-time dynamic modeling. In this work, we propose a multi-agent opinion evolution framework, Graph ODE_Stackelberg, which integrates dynamic Stackelberg games with graph ordinary differential equations (Graph ODEs). For the first time, the framework unifies leader strategies, follower responses, and network-structured evolution in a continuous-time domain. The model formulates a differentiable embedded control system and theoreti- cally establishes the existence, uniqueness, and asymptotic stability of its solutions. Empirical validation on real-world microblog data demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing mainstream models in sentiment diffusion prediction, group polarization analysis, and opinion guidance tasks, offering stronger controllability and interpretability. This research provides a novel pathway for combining graph neural dynamics with game-theoretic reasoning and lays theoretical groundwork for information evolution and intervention mechanisms in digital societies. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning GNN Game Theory Stackelberg Games Opinion Propagation MKL Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9385001","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":621295596,"identity":"9362e68b-7dd3-4761-a506-590c0a75e5fe","order_by":0,"name":"Xiaofeng Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA50lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gYJBgYJBvv2xsYHQC4PH2EtjBAtBjyHmw1AWtiI1MLAYCCR3gZmENTCD3TP7YoaizxzhsS2yq85djJsDMwPH93Ao0XizMFmyzPHJIotGw623Zbdlgx0GJuxcQ4eLQYSiW2SDWwSiQ0HG9tuS25jBmrhYZMmrOUfUMthxrZiyW31RGppbJNI3HCMsY3x47bDhLWA/dLYJ5E4s4exWZpx23EeNmYCfuFvbz54s+FbXWK//POHH39uq7bnZ29++BifFhTAzAMmiVUOAow/SFE9CkbBKBgFIwYAAGrJSE6jFibqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangsu Administration Institute,","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaofeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-11 06:11:54","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9385001/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9385001/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106961546,"identity":"4d25e98f-c88f-486b-9ea3-d5921d893847","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-15 09:25:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":493604,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"StackelbergGraphODE20260408.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9385001/v1_covered_7dfa5d6c-f6b8-4715-a4a9-c83ee7bdda7d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eAnalyzing Chinese Microblogs via Dynamic Stackelberg Games and Graph ODEs\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"GNN, Game Theory, Stackelberg Games, Opinion Propagation, MKL","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9385001/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9385001/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn recent years, social media platforms have become central arenas for the generation and diffusion of public opinion, exhibiting pronounced leader–follower hierarchical game dynamics. 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