Considering the interplay between sectoral co-emissions of warmers, coolers, and their lifespans can improve the design of climate change mitigation policies

Considering the interplay between sectoral co-emissions of warmers, coolers, and their lifespans can improve the design of climate change mitigation policies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Considering the interplay between sectoral co-emissions of warmers, coolers, and their lifespans can improve the design of climate change mitigation policies Brian Buma, Ilissa Ocko, Blake Walkowiak, Yangyang Xu, Maureen Lackner, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are typically a mix of warmers/coolers and short-lived/long-lived species. This suite of emissions should be taken into account to drive better outcomes. We quantify 33 emitted species since 1750 from seven economic sectors and their impact on present-day warming. We then assess how today’s sectoral emissions impact future temperatures. Sectors that predominantly emit short-lived warmers drive half of today’s warming (~ 0.6°C). However, their current-year emissions have a lesser impact on 100-year temperature projections due to proportionally lower longer-lived species. Sectoral emissions dominated by longer-lived warmers impact temperature for centuries – an impact which accumulates over time. However, shorter-lived climate coolers from these sectors mask ~ 50% of their present-day warming (~ 33% overall). This means actions necessary to reduce long-lived warming may temporarily increase near-term temperatures. Successfully limiting both near- and long-term warming requires considering this interplay and accelerating climate ambitions to offset any decline in coolers. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Climate forcer greenhouse gas warming emissions cooling emissions precursor chemicals atmospheric chemistry Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementalDataMay8.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 30 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 08 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 03 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 28 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 28 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 28 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 08 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6204338","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":454726849,"identity":"e6355ef0-8a89-4f80-943d-0d6ecfbdbfda","order_by":0,"name":"Brian Buma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAp0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwkQWcHA2N5AmpYzDIw9B0jSwthGihZz6R7TDT/n2cj2MDAf+/iFGC2Wc86Y3ezdlmbcw8CWPFuGKIfdyDG7wbvtcOJ+Bh5jZglitdz8O+d/Yg9JWm7zNhwAa2H8QIwWyznHym7LHEs27mFmS2YmRgcwxJq33XxTYyfbw958mPEHUXrgAGgFMw9pWoCAVFtGwSgYBaNghAAAc2gyoZXYSbkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brian","middleName":"","lastName":"Buma","suffix":""},{"id":454726850,"identity":"15cdb623-f725-4d0d-923d-a72196469349","order_by":1,"name":"Ilissa Ocko","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ilissa","middleName":"","lastName":"Ocko","suffix":""},{"id":454726851,"identity":"5c24cdcb-0b19-4a32-a13c-a43bfafa74f5","order_by":2,"name":"Blake Walkowiak","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Blake","middleName":"","lastName":"Walkowiak","suffix":""},{"id":454726852,"identity":"ef276ebd-e7e6-4d29-835d-bfe73de163f5","order_by":3,"name":"Yangyang Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Texas A\u0026M University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yangyang","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":454726853,"identity":"0851b4dc-dd1a-4ee7-a301-24f9b7f1916d","order_by":4,"name":"Maureen Lackner","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maureen","middleName":"","lastName":"Lackner","suffix":""},{"id":454726854,"identity":"bcd7f3b8-a744-41c1-ad03-72b497952346","order_by":5,"name":"Stavroula Sartzetakis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stavroula","middleName":"","lastName":"Sartzetakis","suffix":""},{"id":454726855,"identity":"03564dd2-29b4-4933-889f-ce06d4ae6f36","order_by":6,"name":"Alice Alpert","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alice","middleName":"","lastName":"Alpert","suffix":""},{"id":454726856,"identity":"9fd3c6ac-585e-4718-8488-dd21fc021532","order_by":7,"name":"Shradda Dhungel","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shradda","middleName":"","lastName":"Dhungel","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-11 15:08:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","type":"published","date":"2025-07-30T16:12:55+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":83008867,"identity":"43f5a8d9-58e4-4799-a3d6-ba7a82fb7893","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 04:17:48","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":325382,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eContribution of historical emissions (1750-2022) to present-day anthropogenic climate change. Solid (hashed) bars represent warming (cooling) impact. Emissions and sectoral shares in parentheses are contributions to gross warming and cooling, respectively. CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e: Carbon Dioxide; N\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO: Nitrous Oxide; HCs: Halogenated Compounds [LL-HCs: long-lived HCs] including Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); CH\u003csub\u003e4\u003c/sub\u003e: Methane; O\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e: Tropospheric \u0026amp; Stratospheric Ozone; sH\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eO: Stratospheric Water Vapor; AER: Aerosol direct effects; Clouds: Aerosol-induced cloud effects; CO \u0026amp; NMVOCs: Carbon Monoxide \u0026amp; Non-Methane Volatile Organic Carbons; BC: Black Carbon; SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e: Sulfur Dioxide; NO\u003csub\u003ex\u003c/sub\u003e: Nitrogen Oxides; OC: Organic Carbon; NH\u003csub\u003e3\u003c/sub\u003e: Ammonia. Sector to emissions data taken from the analysis herein (including emissions contributions to net temperature change), emissions to forcings data taken from (2). Biomass burning and land use changes not included. Agriculture includes energy-use emissions from forestry and fisheries. Power represents power generation.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1/0f3cb6a00f8289237700edc0.png"},{"id":83009173,"identity":"ab8b83a6-4ac7-433e-935e-3d24931f4ad1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 04:25:48","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":68201,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal mean surface air temperature change from 1750 to 2022 due to historical emissions, by sector and climate forcer species. Bars are ranked by net warming (black diamond). Darker (lighter) grey outlines highlight long-lived (short-lived) emitted species (note that not all HCs are long-lived). Climate warmer and cooler pies are proportional by radius. Further uncertainty details shown in Table S2. Power represents power generation. Biomass burning and land-use change emissions not included.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1/2f4b7afed4c826c4c2cdf817.png"},{"id":83009172,"identity":"5f605c5a-19c1-4ab1-af90-5525b3fbbe92","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 04:25:48","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":45244,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePercent of warming from CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e vs. gross cooling from that sector based on historical emissions (1750-2022). These are aggregated global scale estimates; regionally, sectors may have different mixes of emissions. Dashed line is a linear regression through all points. For individual cooling species contributions, see Fig. S4. Error bars represent one standard deviation. Tick marks on graphs refer to points specifically.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1/30cc1bb12456d01f1ca62e51.png"},{"id":83008870,"identity":"68e25d54-1585-4c76-8efb-c61bce65ef12","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 04:17:48","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":36522,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSectoral shares contributing to current and future net warming from historical emissions and present-day emissions, respectively (including both warmers and coolers). Future climate change impacts calculated using global temperature change potentials with time horizons of 10, 20, and 100 years (see Table S6 for values used for each species). For the same projection allocating FFPD to end-use sectors, see Fig. S5.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1/d10c35e2b433bc359f8647d9.png"},{"id":88268148,"identity":"ead38e97-fce4-4f7d-bf7c-8ab2dacc0514","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-04 16:49:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1020228,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MSrevisedMay10.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1_covered_488a2925-e639-4acf-9864-3b36ba5b10df.pdf"},{"id":83009176,"identity":"44386114-1639-4940-8dfc-e2178d854880","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 04:25:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":721892,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementalDataMay8.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6204338/v1/0947bfb7559feb775064f59c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Considering the interplay between sectoral co-emissions of warmers, coolers, and their lifespans can improve the design of climate change mitigation policies","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-climate-and-atmospheric-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjclimatsci","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Climate and Atmospheric Science](http://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/)","snPcode":"41612","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41612/3","title":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate forcer, greenhouse gas, warming emissions, cooling emissions, precursor chemicals, atmospheric chemistry","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAnthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are typically a mix of warmers/coolers and short-lived/long-lived species. This suite of emissions should be taken into account to drive better outcomes. We quantify 33 emitted species since 1750 from seven economic sectors and their impact on present-day warming. We then assess how today\u0026rsquo;s sectoral emissions impact future temperatures. Sectors that predominantly emit short-lived warmers drive half of today\u0026rsquo;s warming (~\u0026thinsp;0.6\u0026deg;C). However, their current-year emissions have a lesser impact on 100-year temperature projections due to proportionally lower longer-lived species. Sectoral emissions dominated by longer-lived warmers impact temperature for centuries \u0026ndash; an impact which accumulates over time. However, shorter-lived climate coolers from these sectors mask\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;50% of their present-day warming (~\u0026thinsp;33% overall). This means actions necessary to reduce long-lived warming may temporarily increase near-term temperatures. Successfully limiting both near- and long-term warming requires considering this interplay and accelerating climate ambitions to offset any decline in coolers.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Considering the interplay between sectoral co-emissions of warmers, coolers, and their lifespans can improve the design of climate change mitigation policies","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-19 04:17:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6204338/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-06-08T11:04:13+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-07T12:58:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-03T20:55:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"268224447758707883279968007240731165224","date":"2025-05-28T12:31:29+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"36441888466382772847966707064801698143","date":"2025-05-28T10:36:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-05-28T09:13:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-05-28T09:13:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-05-28T09:08:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","date":"2025-05-08T20:45:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-climate-and-atmospheric-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjclimatsci","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Climate and Atmospheric Science](http://www.nature.com/npjclimatsci/)","snPcode":"41612","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41612/3","title":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1b87046f-5aba-4426-948b-18f631030ded","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 19th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":48348246,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"},{"id":48348247,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and earth system modelling"},{"id":48348248,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change mitigation"},{"id":48348249,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-04T16:39:34+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6204338","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","journal":{"identity":"npj-climate-and-atmospheric-science","isVorOnly":false,"title":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science"},"publishedOn":"2025-07-30 16:12:55","publishedOnDateReadable":"July 30th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-19 04:17:43","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01131-8","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6204338","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6204338","identity":"rs-6204338","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}