An Abrupt Shift in the Arctic Ocean Warming due to Increased Extremes

An Abrupt Shift in the Arctic Ocean Warming due to Increased Extremes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article An Abrupt Shift in the Arctic Ocean Warming due to Increased Extremes Ruijian Gou, Yanni Wang, Gerrit Lohmann, Niklas Boers, Deliang Chen, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6119832/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Arctic sea ice has been shrinking since 1980s, and a sudden shift from thicker, deformed ice to thinner, more uniform ice occurred in 2007. The impacts remain unclear. Here we uncover a sudden 0.8°C rise and a doubling of sea surface temperature variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ), pinpointing 2007 as a critical point of abrupt transition. Following a rapid expansion of the MIZ post-2007, Arctic marine heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified, accelerating sea ice melt and solar heat accumulation. Our analysis uncovers an intensified positive feedback between MHWs and Arctic Ocean warming. With continued greenhouse warming, destabilizing Arctic sea ice is expected to further intensify MHWs, exacerbating Arctic Ocean warming. Our findings underscore the critical role of climate extremes in triggering climate transitions. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialsNCC.docx Supplementary Materials for An Abrupt Shift in the Arctic Ocean Warming due to Increased Extremes Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6119832","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499492103,"identity":"48f909a4-ccf2-466f-ab57-5c25cf55f92c","order_by":0,"name":"Ruijian Gou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCDzYgkrHxANE6GGekgakG4rUw86RBGMRpMe9ffEzaJsEmcW37YaAtNTbRBLXI3HiWJp2TkGZsdiYRqOVYWm4DIS0SEmfMpHN/HJYzOwDUwthwmEgtFgmHeczOPyRWC3+PmTRDAtCWG8TbwpZs2QPyyw2gLQlE+YX/8MEbP4Ahtu18+sMHH2psCGthkEhA4iTgUIQK+A8QpWwUjIJRMApGMgAAnA5CGOIaDB0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0549-0726","institution":"Laoshan National Laboratory, Alfred Wegener Institude","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ruijian","middleName":"","lastName":"Gou","suffix":""},{"id":499492104,"identity":"5b46f60b-8527-4879-9eaa-946fc42743fa","order_by":1,"name":"Yanni Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanni","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":499492105,"identity":"0db5465f-1c99-4dbc-869e-bf862810f6a2","order_by":2,"name":"Gerrit Lohmann","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2089-733X","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gerrit","middleName":"","lastName":"Lohmann","suffix":""},{"id":499492106,"identity":"cf1f6dfe-d591-4614-943b-d7e3a635a328","order_by":3,"name":"Niklas Boers","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1239-9034","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Niklas","middleName":"","lastName":"Boers","suffix":""},{"id":499492107,"identity":"4ec61ff1-73ff-4ce6-a6db-268bfdce243a","order_by":4,"name":"Deliang Chen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Deliang","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":499492108,"identity":"8a82e4f5-d6de-40b0-ae67-bac2c1fe5979","order_by":5,"name":"Xiaopei Lin","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6413-4479","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaopei","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""},{"id":499492109,"identity":"6b856c88-dfb3-4db0-8f33-710cec8a0f11","order_by":6,"name":"Xiao Hua Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of New South Wales","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiao","middleName":"Hua","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":499492110,"identity":"8be9a56a-2846-44a4-8e74-25706e14335f","order_by":7,"name":"Wenju Cai","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6520-0829","institution":"Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenju","middleName":"","lastName":"Cai","suffix":""},{"id":499492111,"identity":"17685411-e011-4596-b284-3c44a931b8bf","order_by":8,"name":"Juergen Kurths","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5926-4276","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juergen","middleName":"","lastName":"Kurths","suffix":""},{"id":499492112,"identity":"fd7b2a48-b4d5-4015-8304-1ec7a22561c8","order_by":9,"name":"Johan Rockström","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Conservation International; 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