Assessing resource stress under agriculture expansion and climate change

Assessing resource stress under agriculture expansion and climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Assessing resource stress under agriculture expansion and climate change Camilla Lo Giudice, Francesco Gardumi, Daniel Adshead, Fitsum Salehu Kebebe, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8968676/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Increased global warming is projected to alter rainfall patterns, intensifying pressure on water availability. The already acknowledged 2.3–2.5◦C temperature increase under current policies calls for progress in adaptation planning. This research assesses how agricultural expansion and climate change impact resource stress. We developed a Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) model with explicit seasonal crop-growth stages to quantify cross-sectoral trade-offs, analysing water stress and biodiversity indicators in Ethiopia. We compared standardized IPCC scenarios with historical trends and observed that seasonal differences in precipitation increase by 9.5% and 20% on a national scale for medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) impact climate trajectories, respectively. These impacts intensify with crop migration, where variable crop yield responses and seasonal crop water needs increase water stress and drive biodiversity loss. This study lays the foundation for progress in adaptation planning by demonstrating how integrated resource management can enable more coherent strategies across sectors. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences CLEWs adaptation water-stress biodiversity seasonal-variability agriculture crop-growing stages Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementalInformation.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8968676","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":597561230,"identity":"a08499cc-ff81-4a97-ab59-6ec9b6f9cdb0","order_by":0,"name":"Camilla Lo 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