Abstract
In this study we apply the bow-tie risk analysis framework to map the causes and consequences of decline or loss of five key Irish Sea ecosystem components: intertidal sandflats and mudflats, burrowing fauna including Dublin Bay prawn Nephrops norvegicus , blue mussel Mytilus edulis , commercially harvested fish, and wintering waterbirds. Main activities exerting multiple pressures on the Irish Sea ecosystem include energy production from offshore wind farms, tourism and leisure, fishing, transport, agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and waste treatment and disposal. All of them can contribute to decline in condition or loss of critical habitats and biota, leading to significant ecological, economic and sociocultural consequences. Understanding these consequences is essential for designing appropriate management responses. The bow-tie approach allows to identify management risks and highlights the most impactful control points for intervention to prevent or mitigate adverse biodiversity events.
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ARPHA Preprints
https://doi.org/10.3897/arphapreprints.e167014 (30 Jul 2025)
https://doi.org/10.3897/arphapreprints.e167014 (30 Jul 2025)
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ARPHA Preprints
doi:
10.3897/arphapreprints.e167014
First posted
30 Jul 2025
Authors
Dorota Kołbuk
- Corresponding author
University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
CEFAS, Suffolk, United Kingdom
University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Conflict of interest
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Disclaimer: This article is (co-)authored by any of the Editors-in-Chief, Managing Editors or their deputies in this journal.
Supporting agencies
Food, Bioeconomy, Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment - HORIZON EUROPE Food, Bioeconomy, Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment
UKRI - UK Research and Innovation
This is an open access preprint distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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