Effects of global sea surface temperatures to Kiremt rainfall in the contrasting topography of northern Ethiopia

Effects of global sea surface temperatures to Kiremt rainfall in the contrasting topography of northern Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Effects of global sea surface temperatures to Kiremt rainfall in the contrasting topography of northern Ethiopia Kibrom Hadush, Haileselassie G. Mariam, Henok Shiferaw, Girmay Gebru, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3927760/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Studies on rainfall variability in relation to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) effects in arid and semi-arid parts of northern Ethiopia have been less investigated. This paper explores the rainfall variability in relation to SST over northern Ethiopia during the main rainy season "Kiremt” on monthly and dekadal (Ten days) time scales. Daily rainfall records (1988–2017) from 41 meteorological stations were used across four homogeneous rainfall zones in the northern highlands and lowlands of Ethiopia. Correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models were introduced to examine the relationships between global SST and Kiremt rainfall and to predict monthly and dekadal rainfall. The results show that there is a unique rainfall pattern in the contrasting area of northern Ethiopia (< 80mm/month in the lowlands and about 350mm/month in the highland). The variability in sub-seasonal rainfall in the lowlands and highlands is mainly attributed to SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Changes in SST in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans have also had a profound impact on seasonal rainfall variability, regardless of their strength and the lag-time effect. Increasing SST in the western equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean enhances rainfall over the northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands, whereas warming SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean causes a decrease in monthly and dekadal rainfall. Overall, prediction of monthly and dekadal rainfall variations in the study site performed well with R 2 28% − 61%. Dekadal Kiremt Northern Ethiopia Monthly Rainfall variability Sea surface temperature Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Theoretical and Applied Climatology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 19 Mar, 2024 Reviews received at journal 19 Mar, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Feb, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Feb, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Feb, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 Feb, 2024 First submitted to journal 04 Feb, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3927760","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":272584322,"identity":"ae62546f-bbd1-4871-8e72-0f30bb3774a6","order_by":0,"name":"Kibrom Hadush","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIie3PsQrCMBCA4Tuyts5KQX0BQXEWX8XQVVxcOqhEhLiIe0F8BqfMKYG6KFkFHXRxtlvdbIu41eommH9ILpBvOACT6QcrEyu7ewDIALxkJIR9Q3YpwQICL5KEPDvfk8rcDm9R/zRoajWN7utxrTFPSOyJXOKQkuv74jpsHujMscW2JRQyXOyOuaRKrDaxhaKbA3KCIsSUEOSfEB1wvK/CbiFxXkRSDjYb0UJSmZVcTHahfrqLFUo3JcG7Xcp6ryASJ7rU20sUjyYdoVVwjr188kxCXWaDej6Lk1Bj2TD54LPJZDL9Ww/grGDM7btkNQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Mekelle University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kibrom","middleName":"","lastName":"Hadush","suffix":""},{"id":272584323,"identity":"41c5b814-b07a-4a6f-ad61-43903ba542bc","order_by":1,"name":"Haileselassie G. 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This paper explores the rainfall variability in relation to SST over northern Ethiopia during the main rainy season \"Kiremt\u0026rdquo; on monthly and dekadal (Ten days) time scales. Daily rainfall records (1988\u0026ndash;2017) from 41 meteorological stations were used across four homogeneous rainfall zones in the northern highlands and lowlands of Ethiopia. Correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models were introduced to examine the relationships between global SST and Kiremt rainfall and to predict monthly and dekadal rainfall. The results show that there is a unique rainfall pattern in the contrasting area of northern Ethiopia (\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;80mm/month in the lowlands and about 350mm/month in the highland). The variability in sub-seasonal rainfall in the lowlands and highlands is mainly attributed to SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Changes in SST in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans have also had a profound impact on seasonal rainfall variability, regardless of their strength and the lag-time effect. Increasing SST in the western equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean enhances rainfall over the northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands, whereas warming SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean causes a decrease in monthly and dekadal rainfall. Overall, prediction of monthly and dekadal rainfall variations in the study site performed well with R\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e 28% \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;61%.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Effects of global sea surface temperatures to Kiremt rainfall in the contrasting topography of northern Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-02-15 14:57:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3927760/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-03-19T10:28:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-03-19T08:29:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"19d47140-d6f0-43b9-bfb2-73ebfd7fb251","date":"2024-02-26T07:47:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-02-25T01:14:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-02-13T07:41:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-02-13T07:41:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","date":"2024-02-04T13:37:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"17b4e166-2428-411d-99ff-a4658f630af4","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 15th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-10-21T16:09:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-3927760","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05208-x","journal":{"identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology"},"publishedOn":"2024-10-14 15:58:11","publishedOnDateReadable":"October 14th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-02-15 14:57:19","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05208-x","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05208-x","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-3927760","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-3927760","identity":"rs-3927760","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}