ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula

ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Emile D. Esmaili, Andrew W. Robertson, Md Saquib Saharwardi, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Seasonal drought forecasting is critical for the hyper-arid, water-stressed Arabian Peninsula (AP), where droughts have become more frequent and intense as manifestations of long-term regional aridification. The region depends heavily on cold-season rainfall to sustain agriculture and livestock, making rainfall deficits particularly disruptive in vulnerable areas. Here, forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and observations are used to produce Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data over the AP for 1991–2020, focusing on six overlapping 3-month wet seasons from October–December to March–May. Covariability between AP SPI and Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is examined using singular value decomposition. The leading mode represents approximately 27–38% of the shared and 37–57% of the individual variability and is linked to ENSO-related SST anomalies. Leading SVD SPI pattern is associated with well-organized 500 mb height anomalies. NMME forecast skill for the 3-month SPI was evaluated across multiple lead times, revealing pronounced spatial and temporal variability through both deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The models demonstrate skill linked to ENSO teleconnections, particularly in La Niña-linked droughts. Deterministic forecast skill, measured through anomaly correlation, is highest at the shortest lead times, where combining observed data with model forecasts provides the greatest added value, and declines sharply at longer leads. Skill is higher in early wet-season periods (October–December, November–January, and December–February) and decreases in later periods, with March–May showing the lowest skill relative to persistence forecasts. Assessments based on reliability diagrams and ranked probability skill score also reveal that probabilistic forecast skill is strongest during the early wet season, decreases in subsequent periods, and is minimal in March–May. These findings suggest that NMME-based seasonal forecasts could offer useful early warning information for drought across the AP, especially at short lead times and during ENSO-active periods. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology AP Drought SPI ENSO NMME Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryFigures.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8307914","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":560546467,"identity":"fa639956-e3fd-40e0-bf4a-c46ce99a6d2c","order_by":0,"name":"Muhammad Azhar Ehsan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgeJ/yTkGBiYGxgYGyRAIgaEtDAbPGCzMAZqJV4Lm+QDtorEBogWBsJadNsPH5BI4JFI729vbJO6ucNCnoG9eZsEPi1mZ9ISDBIkJHJnnDnYJp17RsKwgedYGX4tB3IMEhIMJHI3SCQCtbRJAL2TY4Zfy/n3Hw4kJEikG0C12DfIvyGg5UYOY0MC0DswLYkNEjyEtDwzZgAqMwT6pdka6JfkNp60Ygv8Dkt+/vNnQ508f3vzwdu5O+ps+9kPb7yBTwsmYCNN+SgYBaNgFIwCbAAAcYRKD8olqgYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Columbia University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"Azhar","lastName":"Ehsan","suffix":""},{"id":560546468,"identity":"dde7bba5-8036-42f9-ac54-ba560af8b0dd","order_by":1,"name":"Emile D. Esmaili","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emile","middleName":"D.","lastName":"Esmaili","suffix":""},{"id":560546469,"identity":"c0e8007a-2415-4da8-b7a1-a0524292a890","order_by":2,"name":"Andrew W. Robertson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Columbia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"W.","lastName":"Robertson","suffix":""},{"id":560546470,"identity":"ebde67e9-69b8-4645-afda-cdfb366090dd","order_by":3,"name":"Md Saquib Saharwardi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdullah University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Md","middleName":"Saquib","lastName":"Saharwardi","suffix":""},{"id":560546471,"identity":"ba4c7b48-ad62-4370-b445-d94f76aa000a","order_by":4,"name":"Jing Yuan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Columbia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Yuan","suffix":""},{"id":560546472,"identity":"cab6719d-8aba-47fb-828a-8f1601d942ee","order_by":5,"name":"Matteo Zampieri","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdullah University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matteo","middleName":"","lastName":"Zampieri","suffix":""},{"id":560546473,"identity":"b626594d-4e29-48d9-bb35-a018b46f653e","order_by":6,"name":"Thang Luong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdullah University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thang","middleName":"","lastName":"Luong","suffix":""},{"id":560546474,"identity":"f7ac7602-acbf-44ff-bfab-3f2e93e221b9","order_by":7,"name":"Ibrahim Hoteit","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"King Abdullah University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ibrahim","middleName":"","lastName":"Hoteit","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-08 12:53:36","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98363789,"identity":"9e3f8ae8-e1c5-49c7-8383-3e3e156e42ea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":17580458,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptSubReadyFinal.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/11b62f1b81209a985595ccfe.docx"},{"id":98363770,"identity":"a0b4055f-96ff-4c88-b965-bbb4744b15d5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:55","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":10090,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"b78b00aedd3f4801a2ba20fed221a404.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/e0b33a5c6224c1e71f1ea672.json"},{"id":98439150,"identity":"459827be-c17b-4f41-9dd1-f914357381ad","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 17:01:18","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":15026402,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryFigures.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/34fce183fc8e5a7202ccd2a2.docx"},{"id":98363771,"identity":"97ba3b7e-019e-4264-adec-80e25f66e634","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:55","extension":"xml","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":134638,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"b78b00aedd3f4801a2ba20fed221a4041enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/d2cc232921c1ecc75906ad74.xml"},{"id":98363774,"identity":"7c6910b2-2f08-452e-bcc0-6894bcdb7943","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:55","extension":"jpeg","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1024517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/4171e6a11d6a07960c7e0a51.jpeg"},{"id":98363773,"identity":"57fb68ad-bc72-4ccd-bf6a-4edb0b19de9a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:55","extension":"jpeg","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1561187,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/efaefec8e50394eed088cea6.jpeg"},{"id":98438986,"identity":"dbe477af-e839-4eb8-b6cc-9c434229d1a4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 17:00:39","extension":"jpeg","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":2016216,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/83814f843576b47db8bfd661.jpeg"},{"id":98363781,"identity":"d7c14d9b-4faf-47cd-9522-8b38109d6235","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"jpeg","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1220551,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/82725f8824aec920b95c7e48.jpeg"},{"id":98363772,"identity":"3154d19a-72b7-4f10-8e42-88e5503eb9e5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:55","extension":"jpeg","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":984517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/bde1774d2e99d0f16812fe83.jpeg"},{"id":98440273,"identity":"a3361f23-86bd-4297-a0f3-c8f2919ca5b8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 17:03:39","extension":"jpeg","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1095823,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/c07d5ef71c66e010baf94b9d.jpeg"},{"id":98438565,"identity":"ec8298d6-9407-48fb-89f9-71af115578b5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 16:59:33","extension":"jpeg","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":719530,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/7db540ae44a492b931a5dbf8.jpeg"},{"id":98363780,"identity":"ba9ad5f4-085a-47f8-8ae8-d2577ef2b30e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"jpeg","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":973599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/7443b0fa125d471502aeba67.jpeg"},{"id":98439630,"identity":"3e5e6e5d-a48c-4a14-b5ed-93163dd97c7e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 17:02:14","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":248662,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/85e172dd00d304186de476d2.png"},{"id":98363782,"identity":"d2239e2d-04e8-40ad-86e5-2c9169a0e897","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":472122,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/36cb68f2e645659ecf117bf0.png"},{"id":98438520,"identity":"b152261f-7b31-4dab-9179-39f5eecfedfa","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 16:59:24","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":535937,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/a0fc0cc2dee9ea33da78d992.png"},{"id":98363783,"identity":"d37dfa83-141a-4ff8-9d8b-a5a993e03b01","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":276441,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/7550b6a2059def365048061a.png"},{"id":98439270,"identity":"c84997b1-9341-4e04-b54f-840a60bae0ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 17:01:30","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":246279,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/40df90072bdf97596965bf67.png"},{"id":98363788,"identity":"cb12d8da-395b-46cc-90b6-81a8625c7aac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"png","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":276487,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/4b9bcb45d39a32bd3f24efad.png"},{"id":98363790,"identity":"b229de8c-3521-44aa-9eae-826f6473ab09","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":163766,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/ef645d2cd6c5cb20cde111e9.png"},{"id":98363785,"identity":"88addf0d-e501-4f17-b693-b141ec655f19","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":208925,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/407f7626968726439dcba828.png"},{"id":98363786,"identity":"e34498a5-9036-4449-927e-fc33e8357091","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"xml","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":133641,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"b78b00aedd3f4801a2ba20fed221a4041structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/4c5310b5a7cc5e4111b67324.xml"},{"id":98363792,"identity":"14512c51-7019-4122-b3f7-fab34961eaf0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"html","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":142715,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/79c4fed09029d9d5a31a4b73.html"},{"id":99799526,"identity":"89c8f502-5f6b-4f8c-bbc4-de9cec2e7659","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-08 13:49:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1724392,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptSubReadyFinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1_covered_a6a48c79-28f3-43d9-ab25-61ed81f4e84e.pdf"},{"id":98363794,"identity":"651ccb6d-2bb1-4025-830e-343ef21a4e3a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 03:30:56","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15026402,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryFigures.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8307914/v1/0a993f174643096a6352b1ef.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"AP, Drought, SPI, ENSO, NMME","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSeasonal drought forecasting is critical for the hyper-arid, water-stressed Arabian Peninsula (AP), where droughts have become more frequent and intense as manifestations of long-term regional aridification. The region depends heavily on cold-season rainfall to sustain agriculture and livestock, making rainfall deficits particularly disruptive in vulnerable areas. Here, forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and observations are used to produce Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data over the AP for 1991\u0026ndash;2020, focusing on six overlapping 3-month wet seasons from October\u0026ndash;December to March\u0026ndash;May. Covariability between AP SPI and Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is examined using singular value decomposition. The leading mode represents approximately 27\u0026ndash;38% of the shared and 37\u0026ndash;57% of the individual variability and is linked to ENSO-related SST anomalies. Leading SVD SPI pattern is associated with well-organized 500 mb height anomalies. NMME forecast skill for the 3-month SPI was evaluated across multiple lead times, revealing pronounced spatial and temporal variability through both deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The models demonstrate skill linked to ENSO teleconnections, particularly in La Ni\u0026ntilde;a-linked droughts. Deterministic forecast skill, measured through anomaly correlation, is highest at the shortest lead times, where combining observed data with model forecasts provides the greatest added value, and declines sharply at longer leads. Skill is higher in early wet-season periods (October\u0026ndash;December, November\u0026ndash;January, and December\u0026ndash;February) and decreases in later periods, with March\u0026ndash;May showing the lowest skill relative to persistence forecasts. Assessments based on reliability diagrams and ranked probability skill score also reveal that probabilistic forecast skill is strongest during the early wet season, decreases in subsequent periods, and is minimal in March\u0026ndash;May. These findings suggest that NMME-based seasonal forecasts could offer useful early warning information for drought across the AP, especially at short lead times and during ENSO-active periods.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"ENSO Teleconnections and Seasonal Forecasts of Wet Season Droughts in the Arabian Peninsula","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-17 03:30:51","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8307914/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2db3ef30-e3f8-416e-9fac-17812ae2a7e3","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 17th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":59671766,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":59671767,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-08T09:28:24+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-17 03:30:51","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8307914","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8307914","identity":"rs-8307914","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}