Surgery for Esotropia: The “Legend” of the Dose-Response Curve Re-visited and the Optimal Surgical Strategy

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Objective To determine clinical predictors of surgical failures following horizontal strabismus surgery for esotropia, in order to estimate the optimal surgical strategy. Design Retrospective pooled observational case series of published cases. Subjects Patients having horizontal strabismus surgery for esotropia, published between 1940 and 2025, with known preoperative deviation, surgical approach, and outcome. Methods Clinical data from individual patients having strabismus surgery for esotropia was recorded from published case series, and analyzed using multivariable logistic regression to predict over- and under-correction. Main Outcome Measure Surgical failure, as determined by reoperation, suture adjustment, or postoperative strabismus of 10 prism diopters or more. Results We abstracted individual patient data for 3518 surgeries from 163 publications. Binocular (as compared with monocular) surgery was associated with fewer under-corrections (odds ratio [OR] 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.92, p=0.005) and more over-corrections (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.79, p=0.002, n=3266). Increasing preoperative deviation was associated with more under-corrections (OR 1.06/°, 95% CI 1.05/° to 1.07/°, p<0.0001) and fewer overcorrections (OR 0.97/°, 95% CI 0.95/° to 0.99/°, p=0.001, n=3266). Increasing surgical dose was associated with fewer under-corrections (OR 0.95/mm, 95% CI 0.91/mm to 0.99/mm, p=0.01), and more over-corrections (OR 1.08/mm, 95% CI 1.01/mm to 1.16/mm, p=0.02, n=3266). The failure rate was minimized with a large per-muscle surgical dose. As the preoperative deviation increases, one progresses from unilateral recessions, to unilateral recession-resections, and then bi-medial recessions. Under a range of assumptions, bi-medial recessions of 6 mm are optimal for preoperative deviations of 45 to 50 prism diopters. Conclusions Larger doses for esotropia surgery do produce a larger response. Most models predicted the lowest failure rates with large recessions or resections, with additional muscles operated for larger preoperative deviations. Thus, the analysis supports the approach of Scobee (1951) over that of Parks (1975). The preferred surgical strategy depends on multiple factors.
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Surgery for Esotropia: The “Legend” of the Dose-Response Curve Re-visited and the Optimal Surgical Strategy | medRxiv /* */ /* */ <!-- <!-- /*! * yepnope1.5.4 * (c) WTFPL, GPLv2 */ (function(a,b,c){function d(a){return"[object Function]"==o.call(a)}function e(a){return"string"==typeof a}function f(){}function g(a){return!a||"loaded"==a||"complete"==a||"uninitialized"==a}function h(){var a=p.shift();q=1,a?a.t?m(function(){("c"==a.t?B.injectCss:B.injectJs)(a.s,0,a.a,a.x,a.e,1)},0):(a(),h()):q=0}function i(a,c,d,e,f,i,j){function k(b){if(!o&&g(l.readyState)&&(u.r=o=1,!q&&h(),l.onload=l.onreadystatechange=null,b)){"img"!=a&&m(function(){t.removeChild(l)},50);for(var d in y[c])y[c].hasOwnProperty(d)&&y[c][d].onload()}}var j=j||B.errorTimeout,l=b.createElement(a),o=0,r=0,u={t:d,s:c,e:f,a:i,x:j};1===y[c]&&(r=1,y[c]=[]),"object"==a?l.data=c:(l.src=c,l.type=a),l.width=l.height="0",l.onerror=l.onload=l.onreadystatechange=function(){k.call(this,r)},p.splice(e,0,u),"img"!=a&&(r||2===y[c]?(t.insertBefore(l,s?null:n),m(k,j)):y[c].push(l))}function j(a,b,c,d,f){return q=0,b=b||"j",e(a)?i("c"==b?v:u,a,b,this.i++,c,d,f):(p.splice(this.i++,0,a),1==p.length&&h()),this}function k(){var a=B;return a.loader={load:j,i:0},a}var l=b.documentElement,m=a.setTimeout,n=b.getElementsByTagName("script")[0],o={}.toString,p=[],q=0,r="MozAppearance"in l.style,s=r&&!!b.createRange().compareNode,t=s?l:n.parentNode,l=a.opera&&"[object Opera]"==o.call(a.opera),l=!!b.attachEvent&&!l,u=r?"object":l?"script":"img",v=l?"script":u,w=Array.isArray||function(a){return"[object Array]"==o.call(a)},x=[],y={},z={timeout:function(a,b){return b.length&&(a.timeout=b[0]),a}},A,B;B=function(a){function b(a){var a=a.split("!"),b=x.length,c=a.pop(),d=a.length,c={url:c,origUrl:c,prefixes:a},e,f,g;for(f=0;f<d;f++)g=a[f].split("="),(e=z[g.shift()])&&(c=e(c,g));for(f=0;f<b;f++)c=x[f](c);return c}function g(a,e,f,g,h){var i=b(a),j=i.autoCallback;i.url.split(".").pop().split("?").shift(),i.bypass||(e&&(e=d(e)?e:e[a]||e[g]||e[a.split("/").pop().split("?")[0]]),i.instead?i.instead(a,e,f,g,h):(y[i.url]?i.noexec=!0:y[i.url]=1,f.load(i.url,i.forceCSS||!i.forceJS&&"css"==i.url.split(".").pop().split("?").shift()?"c":c,i.noexec,i.attrs,i.timeout),(d(e)||d(j))&&f.load(function(){k(),e&&e(i.origUrl,h,g),j&&j(i.origUrl,h,g),y[i.url]=2})))}function h(a,b){function c(a,c){if(a){if(e(a))c||(j=function(){var a=[].slice.call(arguments);k.apply(this,a),l()}),g(a,j,b,0,h);else if(Object(a)===a)for(n in m=function(){var b=0,c;for(c in a)a.hasOwnProperty(c)&&b++;return b}(),a)a.hasOwnProperty(n)&&(!c&&!--m&&(d(j)?j=function(){var a=[].slice.call(arguments);k.apply(this,a),l()}:j[n]=function(a){return function(){var b=[].slice.call(arguments);a&&a.apply(this,b),l()}}(k[n])),g(a[n],j,b,n,h))}else!c&&l()}var h=!!a.test,i=a.load||a.both,j=a.callback||f,k=j,l=a.complete||f,m,n;c(h?a.yep:a.nope,!!i),i&&c(i)}var i,j,l=this.yepnope.loader;if(e(a))g(a,0,l,0);else if(w(a))for(i=0;i (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];var j=d.createElement(s);var dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.src='//www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;j.type='text/javascript';j.async=true;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-P4HH5NV'); Skip to main content Home About Submit ALERTS / RSS Search for this keyword Advanced Search Surgery for Esotropia: The “Legend” of the Dose-Response Curve Re-visited and the Optimal Surgical Strategy Christopher T. Leffler , Emilia Varrone , Satya Siri Paruchuri , Catherine Phan doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.07.25339775 Christopher T. Leffler 1 Department of Ophthalmology. Virginia Commonwealth University . Richmond, VA 23298. 2 Department of Ophthalmology. Richmond VA Medical Center , Richmond, VA MD, MPH Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site For correspondence: chrislefflermd{at}gmail.com Emilia Varrone 1 Department of Ophthalmology. Virginia Commonwealth University . Richmond, VA 23298. 2 Department of Ophthalmology. Richmond VA Medical Center , Richmond, VA MD Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Satya Siri Paruchuri 3 Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine. BS Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Catherine Phan 3 Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine. BA Find this author on Google Scholar Find this author on PubMed Search for this author on this site Abstract Full Text Info/History Metrics Data/Code Preview PDF Abstract Objective To determine clinical predictors of surgical failures following horizontal strabismus surgery for esotropia, in order to estimate the optimal surgical strategy. Design Retrospective pooled observational case series of published cases. Subjects Patients having horizontal strabismus surgery for esotropia, published between 1940 and 2025, with known preoperative deviation, surgical approach, and outcome. Methods Clinical data from individual patients having strabismus surgery for esotropia was recorded from published case series, and analyzed using multivariable logistic regression to predict over- and under-correction. Main Outcome Measure Surgical failure, as determined by reoperation, suture adjustment, or postoperative strabismus of 10 prism diopters or more. Results We abstracted individual patient data for 3518 surgeries from 163 publications. Binocular (as compared with monocular) surgery was associated with fewer under-corrections (odds ratio [OR] 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.92, p=0.005) and more over-corrections (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.79, p=0.002, n=3266). Increasing preoperative deviation was associated with more under-corrections (OR 1.06/°, 95% CI 1.05/° to 1.07/°, p<0.0001) and fewer overcorrections (OR 0.97/°, 95% CI 0.95/° to 0.99/°, p=0.001, n=3266). Increasing surgical dose was associated with fewer under-corrections (OR 0.95/mm, 95% CI 0.91/mm to 0.99/mm, p=0.01), and more over-corrections (OR 1.08/mm, 95% CI 1.01/mm to 1.16/mm, p=0.02, n=3266). The failure rate was minimized with a large per-muscle surgical dose. As the preoperative deviation increases, one progresses from unilateral recessions, to unilateral recession-resections, and then bi-medial recessions. Under a range of assumptions, bi-medial recessions of 6 mm are optimal for preoperative deviations of 45 to 50 prism diopters. Conclusions Larger doses for esotropia surgery do produce a larger response. Most models predicted the lowest failure rates with large recessions or resections, with additional muscles operated for larger preoperative deviations. Thus, the analysis supports the approach of Scobee (1951) over that of Parks (1975) . The preferred surgical strategy depends on multiple factors. Introduction For decades, strabismus surgeons have debated the preferred surgical strategy and dose for esotropia. Some, such as Richard Scobee in 1951, have recommended reasonably large surgeries in all cases (e.g. 6 mm medial rectus recessions), with the only variation being the number of muscles operated ( Scobee 1951 ). Others, such as Marshall Parks’ text of 1975, recommended two-muscle surgeries in all cases, but with graded surgical dosing, with smaller doses used for smaller angles of deviation ( Parks 1975 , pp. 108-121). One conventional approach to predict the likely outcome of strabismus surgery has been to look at the change in alignment as a function of the surgical dose measured in mm. However, it has been pointed out that the major predictor of the change in alignment is the preoperative alignment itself ( Archer 2018 ). Moreover, it is conventional for surgeons to deliver a larger surgical dose when the preoperative deviation is greater ( Parks 1975 , pp. 108-121). Therefore, both change in alignment and surgical dose will be correlated with preoperative alignment, and, hence, with each other, even if the surgical dose does not change the size of the response in a causative manner. In other words, spurious dose-response relations can be generated, even with small datasets ( Archer 2018 ). Recent approaches to understand strabismus surgery failures have looked at registries or insurance datasets with thousands of patients ( Christensen 2018 , Leffler 2015 , Leffler 2016 , Oke 2022 , Leffler 2024 , Oke 2024 ). Unfortunately, these large datasets have not included preoperative or postoperative deviations, or the surgical dose in mm ( Christensen 2018 , Leffler 2015 , Leffler 2016 , Oke 2022 , Leffler 2024 , Oke 2024 ). This fact has limited their ability to offer insight into the preferred surgical approach. Therefore, we abstracted and analyzed individual patient data from case series published from 1940 to 2025 to determine predictors of over- and under-correction following surgery for esotropia, and to better understand the preferred surgical strategy and dose. Methods Studies of patients having medial rectus recessions and/or lateral rectus resections for esotropia were identified in Google Scholar by searching for terms such as “esotropia”, “medial rectus recession”, “lateral rectus resection”, combined with “mm”, in October 2025, as tabulated ( Supplemental Table 1 ). Study inclusion criteria included: individual patient data (preoperative deviation, mm of surgery performed, postoperative status as success, over- or under-correction), relevant information provided in the English language, and at least two patients with strabismus. Only surgeries on previously unoperated muscles were included. We did not use surgeries with transpositions, posterior fixation sutures, pulley fixation, slanting recessions, Y-splitting of the medial rectus, or union surgery. We did not include case series which were nonrepresentative because the authors selected them on the basis that they were known to have succeeded or failed. We did not study surgeries for exotropia. We did not include retracted studies. View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 1. Search strategy to identify candidate studies, in October 2025. We identified qualifying studies ( Appendix 1 ) from over 700 candidate studies for review from 1940 to 2025. The studies rejected, primarily for lacking individual patient information with adequate specificity, such as the mm of surgery, are listed in Appendix 2 . Steven Archer provided us with raw data on strabismus outcomes without any individually identifiable patient information ( Archer 2009 ). Under-corrections and over-corrections were defined as deviations of 10 prism diopters or more of esotropia or exotropia postoperatively, respectively, or a reoperation for horizontal strabismus. In addition, when the preoperative deviation was 10 prism diopters or less, the case was considered a failure if the postoperative deviation was not improved. The follow-up date in the study is the same as the outcome date used for the data analysis. For studies which reported recessions of the medial rectus muscle as distance from the limbus, the original insertion distance was assumed to be 5.5 mm. Multivariable logistic regression models to predict under- and over-corrections were prepared with the following variables: 1. preoperative deviation in degrees (°). When both far and near deviations were provided, the larger deviation was used. When deviations with and without refractive correction were provided for accommodative esotropia, the deviation with refractive correction was used. 2. The total number of horizontal rectus muscles operated. 3. binocular vs. monocular surgery. Variables tested in the multivariable models included those significant in univariate analysis, as well as the total surgical dose (mm). The surgical dose was defined as the sum of recessions and resections in mm. We explored the effect on the predicted optimal surgical strategy if over-corrections are more undesirable than under-corrections, perhaps because under-corrections are less likely than over-corrections to produce more severe adverse outcomes, such as a failure of ductions. We also determined for maximal surgery the preoperative deviation for which at least 20 and at least 40 cases had been performed. The study was approved by the VCU Office of Research Subjects Protection. Results Patient and surgery characteristics We identified 163 qualifying reports containing 3518 surgeries in 3504 patients ( Appendix 1 ). Most analyses focused on 3266 cases without thyroid disease, and for which, if adjustable sutures were used, the initial alignment (before adjustment) was known ( Table 1 , Supplemental Tables 2 - 3 ). Only 62 of the surgeries in these baseline analyses used adjustable sutures. View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Table 1. Multivariable Logistic Predictors of Under-corrections and Over-corrections after Strabismus Surgery for Esotropia. View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 2. Univariate Predictors of Under-corrections from Strabismus Surgery for Esotropia. View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 3. Univariate Predictors of Over-corrections from Strabismus Surgery for Esotropia. The mean preoperative deviation was 22.3° (SD 9.7°) (which corresponds with 40.9 PD), with a range of 0° to 52° (0 to 128 PD, n=3266). (Some strabismus surgeries are performed on patients with orthophoria in primary gaze but esotropia in lateral gaze due to incomitance, or for accommodative esotropia seen only without correction ( Phanphruk 2023 ; Gunduz 2019 ; Hornbrook 1984 )). The surgical approach was bi-medial rectus (n=1616 surgeries), unilateral medial rectus (n=572), both horizontal muscles in one eye (n=517), bilateral lateral rectus (n=224), bi-medial rectus with one lateral rectus (n=205), unilateral lateral rectus (n=79), all four horizontal muscles (n=50), or bilateral lateral rectus muscle with one medial (n=3). Of 2963 surgeries which involved at least one medial rectus recession, 2361 (80%) were between 3 mm and 6 mm, inclusive. Associations with Over- and Under-correction Binocular (as compared with monocular) surgery was associated with fewer under-corrections (odds ratio [OR] 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.92, p=0.005) and more over-corrections (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.79, p=0.002, n=3266, Table 1 ). Increasing preoperative deviation was associated with more under-corrections (OR 1.06/°, 95% CI 1.05/° to 1.07/°, p<0.0001) and fewer over-corrections (OR 0.97/°, 95% CI 0.95/° to 0.99/°, p=0.001). Increasing surgical dose was associated with fewer under-corrections (OR 0.95/mm, 95% CI 0.91/mm to 0.99/mm, p=0.01), and more over-corrections (OR 1.08/mm, 95% CI 1.01/mm to 1.16/mm, p=0.02). For a given surgical dose in mm, operating on more muscles increased the likelihood of overcorrections (odds ratio 1.61/muscle, 95% CI 1.07/muscle to 2.41/muscle, p=0.02, Table 1 ). This model included no cases of thyroid eye disease (n=3266, Table 1 ). Most surgeries (87.2%, 2516 of 2884 surgeries with data available) were performed in children under age 18 years. In univariate analysis, children were less likely to be under-corrected (p<0.001, Supplemental Table 1 ), and tended to have more overcorrections, though not significantly so (p=0.06, Supplemental Table 2 ). In multivariable logistic regression, children had a lower probability of under-correction (odds ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.76, p<0.001, n=2884). Postoperative follow-up was 6 months or more in 2063 of 3099 surgeries with data available (66.6%). In univariate analysis, follow-up of 6 months or more was associated with fewer under-corrections (26.3% vs. 31.3%, p=0.004, Supplemental Table 1 ), but only a nonsignificant trend towards more overcorrections (7.0% vs. 5.5%, p=0.11, Supplemental Table 2 ). With multivariable logistic regression (n=3099), follow-up over 6 months was associated with fewer under-corrections (odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.92, p=0.004). These observations are consistent with an exotropic drift after surgery for esotropia. Duane syndrome was present in 124 surgeries (3.8%). In univariate analysis, Duane syndrome was associated with a lower risk of under-correction (18.5% vs. 27.8%, p=0.02, Supplemental Table 1 ). However, in a multivariable logistic regression model, the association of Duane syndrome with under-corrections was no longer significant (odds ratio 0.69, 95% CI 0.43 to 1.11, p=0.13, n=3188). Preferred Surgical Approach From the equations for the probability of under- and over-corrections, the total failure rate can be determined. The optimal surgical strategy is that which minimizes the failure rate. For instance, for bi-medial recessions, if under- and over-corrections are considered equally undesirable, the lowest failure rate for 20 prism diopters of esotropia occurs with 5 mm recessions for both eyes ( Figure 1 ). For monocular surgeries, maximal surgical doses are recommended for this deviation ( Supplemental Figs. 1 - 2 ). Download figure Open in new tab Figure 1. Probability of failures, under-corrections, and over-corrections for bi-medial recession with a preoperative deviation of 20 prism diopters, as a function of surgical dose in mm per muscle. This is the basic model in which under- and over-corrections are considered equally undesirable. Download figure Open in new tab Supplemental Figure 1. Probability of failure, under-correction, and over-correction for unilateral medial rectus recession for 20 PD preoperative deviations as a function of surgical dose in mm, for the basic model, in which under- and over-corrections are considered equally undesirable. Download figure Open in new tab Supplemental Figure 2. Probability of failure, under-correction, and over-correction for unilateral 2-muscle strabismus surgery for 20 PD preoperative deviations as a function of surgical dose for medial rectus recession plus lateral rectus resection, for the model in which under- and over-corrections were considered equally undesirable. The resections were one third larger than the recessions. Although the precise optimal surgical approach depends on the specific assumptions, certain common themes can be identified. If one must perform two-muscle surgery, as in the tables of Parks (1975) , then larger preoperative deviations do require larger surgical doses, measured in mm ( Supplemental Tables 4 , 5 ). The relative value which one places on over-corrections and under-corrections influences the surgical dose determined to be optimal in the models. For instance, assuming that under-corrections only result in significant adverse findings 64.5% as often as over-corrections results in tables which approximate the bi-medial recession tables of Parks (1975) , with optimal doses of 4 mm OU for 25 pd and 4.5 mm OU for 30 pd ( Supplemental Table 4 ). View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 4. Bi-medial recession tables. Moreover, assuming that under-corrections only result in significant adverse findings 40% as often as over-corrections approximates the unilateral recess / resect tables of Parks (1975) , with an optimal dose of 4 mm recession / 6 mm resection for 25 pd ( Supplemental Table 5 ). View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 5. Table for unilateral medial rectus recession plus lateral rectus resection. If the restriction that surgery must involve two muscles is removed, then, all the models recommend maximal (or near-maximal) surgery. One does not perform small recessions or resections. Rather, if one decides to operate on a muscle, one performs a reasonably large surgery, in accord with the approach of Scobee (1951) . If the deviation is small one operates on few muscles, and if large, one operates on more muscles. Moreover, there is a consistent progression as one moves from smaller to larger preoperative deviations: 1) unilateral recession; 2) unilateral recess-resect; 3) bi-medial recession; 4) 3- muscle surgery; 5) 4-muscle surgery ( Table 2 , Figure 2 ). View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Table 2. Optimal Surgical Approach for Esotropia. Download figure Open in new tab Figure 2. Failure probability as a function of preoperative deviation, for each surgical strategy (unilateral medial rectus recession, unilateral medial rectus recession with lateral rectus resection, and bi-medial recession). This is the model with weighting, so that under-corrections are considered only 64.5% as likely as over-corrections to result in significant adverse effects, in order to reproduce the bi-medial recession strabismus table of Parks (1975) . The mm of surgery for each strategy was selected to minimize the weighted failure rate: medial rectus recession one eye of 6 mm; medial rectus recession/lateral rectus and bi-medial recession optimal dosages as in Supplemental Tables 4 and 5 . Finally, certain preoperative deviations have the same approach regardless of the weighting assumptions used. For instance, preoperative deviations of 45 to 50 prism diopters are optimally treated with 6-mm bi-medial recessions in all models tested. According to the regression equations, small preoperative deviations are optimally treated with a large unilateral medial rectus recession. One caution is that there are limited data with this approach for the smallest deviations. For instance, there were at least 40 cases for which a medial rectus recession of at least 6 mm was performed for a preoperative deviation of 16 prism diopters or less. There were at least 40 cases for which a unilateral recession of 5 mm was performed for a preoperative deviation of 12 prism diopters or less ( Table 2 ). If one performs a large recession for smaller deviations, one is venturing into territory with limited data. Thyroid Eye Disease In a multivariable model which included 103 cases of thyroid eye disease, the rates of under-correction (p=0.44) and overcorrection (p=0.35) were not significantly associated with the surgical dose ( Supplemental Table 6 ). This lack of association was likely due to the small number of thyroid cases. View this table: View inline View popup Download powerpoint Supplemental Table 6. Multivariable Logistic Predictors of Under-corrections and Overcorrections after Strabismus Surgery for Esotropia (includes cases of thyroid disease). Adjustable Sutures Adjustable sutures were used for 216 cases. For this analysis, the outcome was determined post-adjustment. Only 6 over-corrections (2.8%) and 28 under-corrections (13.0%) were observed. Patients who were under-corrected did not differ according to whether surgery was binocular (p=0.28), by total mm of surgery (p=0.38), the presence of thyroid eye disease (p=0.51), or number of muscles operated (p=0.81). Likewise, the preoperative deviation in under-corrected patients 18.8 degrees (SD 7.7 degrees) was not significantly different than that of other patients (15.8 degrees, SD 8.8 degrees, p=0.07). Discussion This study identified predictors of under- and over-correction following horizontal muscle surgery for esotropia, and provided insight into the optimal surgical strategy. As one might expect, binocular surgery (as compared with monocular surgery) is less likely to result in under-corrections, and more likely to result in over-corrections. An age-old question in strabismus surgery has been the degree to which a change in the surgical dose (in mm) changes the final alignment. As early as 1951, Scobee noted that “The amount of surgery obtained in a patient is usually directly proportional to the deviation present before surgery and is not particularly related to the amount of surgery performed as measured in millimeters.” ( Scobee 1951 ) This point as been emphasized more recently ( Archer 2018 ). Nonetheless, our study confirmed the common-sense notion that larger doses of esotropia surgery do produce a larger response. The difficulty of demonstrating the dose-response curve for strabismus surgery has led to this curve being called a “legend” ( Archer 2018 ). Our study sheds light on why the relationship is difficult to demonstrate. In short, strabismus surgery typically “works”. Failures are rare. For instance, in our study, only 7.0% of surgeries resulted in over-corrections. Therefore, a study of 100 patients with strabismus might only be expected to produce 7 over-corrections. In order to learn when failures occur, one needs to analyze thousands of cases. The regression equations permit determination of optimal surgical strategies. For a variety of model assumptions, large medial rectus recessions (about 6 mm in this dataset) were recommended. The idea that a muscle should be operated aggressively, or not at all, is not new. Prangen wrote in 1947 that he performed maximal resections, and that “The medial rectus muscle I recess 5 mm, no more and no less.” In 1951, Stine advocated recessing the muscle to the equator, and wrote “if one has decided to attack a muscle, one should either recess or resect it fully”. Also in 1951, Scobee published a series of patients having 6 mm medial rectus recessions, regardless of whether surgery was unilateral or bilateral. According to our results, this “all-or-nothing” approach to each muscle is favored over the tables outlined in Parks in 1975, with graded doses and two-muscle surgery for all cases. The models predicted that as the preoperative deviation increases, one progresses from a unilateral medial rectus recession, to a unilateral two-muscle surgery, and finally to bi-medial recessions. Larger deviations typically require not a larger per-muscle dose, but rather that one operate on more muscles. The precise cutoffs where one transitions to the next surgical approach depend on how one values under-corrections relative to over-corrections. Nonetheless, some common features were seen. For instance, preoperative deviations of 45 to 50 prism diopters were optimally treated with bi-medial recessions of 6 mm, over a range of model assumptions. Over-corrections were uncommon in this dataset, and the fact that they were not strongly dependent on surgical dose could indicate that overcorrections occur by a different mechanism, such as by slipped muscles ( Chen 2005 ), by stretched scars ( Ludwig 2000 ), or by variation in the brain’s response to the operation. The results of this large dataset do not definitively settle the question of optimal surgical approach, because patients and doctors might vary in their preferences. For instance, some surgeons might find over-corrections more objectionable than under-corrections. Moreover, some surgeons might require a certain absolute benefit before being willing to operate on an additional muscle. In addition, when one eye has much better vision than the other, a unilateral surgery might be preferred. This study has multiple limitations. Most of the patients were children. Larger datasets, particularly with more adult data, could be valuable. Also, larger studies with more thyroid eye disease, and/or adjustable sutures, could help to better characterize the dose-response relations and optimal surgical strategy for these types of patients or surgical approaches. 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