Divergent effects of economic and behavioural policy coupling on electric vehicle adoption at individual and system levels

Divergent effects of economic and behavioural policy coupling on electric vehicle adoption at individual and system levels | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Divergent effects of economic and behavioural policy coupling on electric vehicle adoption at individual and system levels Anne Günther, Mart van der Kam, Amir Hosein Hadian Rasanan, Sebastian Gluth, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7488981/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Policy mixes are key to accelerate low-carbon transitions, yet, how combined policies impact electric vehicle (EV) adoption decisions and scale to system-level change remains unclear. We bridge these perspectives by integrating choice experiments, attention process tracing, and agent-based modelling of technology diffusion to examine how coupling a carbon tax with an information intervention affects attention, EV adoption, their diffusion, and public support for EV policies. Across four countries (Mexico, South Africa, USA, UK; N=1,589), the policies competed for attention but had additive effects on stated adoption choices. When embedded in diffusion simulations, the behavioural responses translated into super-additive outcomes, increasing EV adoption by up to nine percentage points compared with single policies. Synergies peaked when technology was improving but not yet self-sustaining. Policy coupling also increased public support for policies alongside growing diffusion. Our findings show how integrating actual decision preferences into diffusion models can reveal nonlinear pathways through which policies shape low-carbon transitions. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Psychology and behaviour Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy and behaviour Social science/Psychology/Human behaviour Electric vehicles Behaviour change interventions Agent-based modelling Policy mix Policy support Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7488981","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-01 08:25:01","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research 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