Information flow causality reveals climate regime shifts during compound dry–hot events

Information flow causality reveals climate regime shifts during compound dry–hot events | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Information flow causality reveals climate regime shifts during compound dry–hot events Yikui Zhang, Daniel Hagan, Diego G. Miralles, Klaus Goergen, Stefan Kollet This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The intensification in the frequency and severity of compound dry–hot events (CDHEs) threatens ecosystem stability worldwide. While land–atmosphere coupling has been recognized as a key driver of CDHE evolution, the causal dynamics between land surface and atmospheric variables under compound extreme conditions remain insufficiently understood. Since the variability of mass and energy transfers in the climate system can be explained as the function of information fluxes, this study applies a causal inference framework based on information flow (IF) to quantify the influences of soil water content (SM) and shortwave radiation (R) on near-surface air temperature (T) during CDHEs. To this end, simulation results from the fully coupled regional climate system model Terrestrial System Modeling Platform over the pan-European model domain region are utilised. Our results reveal that the study domain is predominantly energy-limited, characterized by strong R to T coupling, though water-limited regimes prevail in southwest Europe, showing a stronger SM to T coupling. E.g., the 2003 European CDHE was characterized by a widespread regime shift from energy- to water-limited conditions, which reversed, following the precipitation that ended the event. A significant increase in positive IF from SM to T is identified as a key contributor to the extreme nature of the 2003 CDHE, driven by the persistently dry antecedent conditions. These findings ratify the critical role of spatio-temporal land-atmosphere coupling in shaping CDHE trajectories from the perspective of information theory. Moreover, the IF framework is a powerful diagnostic for uncovering causal drivers of extremes, evaluating climate models, and enhancing the predictability of ecosystem responses under compound climate extremes. Climate Analysis and Modeling Compound dry-hot events Land-atmosphere coupling Causal analysis Regional climate model simulation Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files supplementaryinfoyz01102025.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7931403","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":533925778,"identity":"f991e0a8-4531-4275-adbd-28e6210aee58","order_by":0,"name":"Yikui Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABC0lEQVRIie2QsUoDQRCGZxmYa5ak3YB4PsIeghZK3sPulgXttBDSWOTSrE1eQCzyCqazvDBgGokPYBMRUl9pQDBrTAqLXS0F9yuG2WE+9mcAEom/CBKAqHyTDeYAEqCF4Ef0G0WyXiv0owJbRVm9fccVPaVSLO+75/nJKzaww7uU4WIOveOwwlRD59FeFs8WtE+3T0iHGmanESWroHBoxrcXtX2XbBxKUsJxXDGub8Y3DLX/pb9RPuLBJo7NSKG/guSSvpQ6qHSYysnATc2dtOiPfOZD0oEqZzaotJ4eipeluzKja8ZGDI/ydpsXqul1g8qeD7DOoD+rGG7GZVAAyKtvzVtkNZFIJP4tKxWnS//wk/PMAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Agrosphäre (IBG-3), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yikui","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":533925779,"identity":"eb228421-a326-478f-86a7-c4a801fd7309","order_by":1,"name":"Daniel Hagan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab (H-CEL), Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Hagan","suffix":""},{"id":533925780,"identity":"611ded29-b0d2-4e59-b399-92587d70b0ae","order_by":2,"name":"Diego G. Miralles","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab (H-CEL), Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Diego","middleName":"G.","lastName":"Miralles","suffix":""},{"id":533925781,"identity":"fcfcdb32-f439-4ee1-8bf7-82089fdd5837","order_by":3,"name":"Klaus Goergen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Agrosphäre (IBG-3), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Klaus","middleName":"","lastName":"Goergen","suffix":""},{"id":533925782,"identity":"f2ae66d6-d112-4a49-bd1a-4e736da2fe90","order_by":4,"name":"Stefan Kollet","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Agrosphäre (IBG-3), Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Kollet","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-23 10:45:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":94238304,"identity":"9833f4f3-ba13-4665-bc3c-aa5c6d91346e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6150545,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"climatedynamicsyz01102025.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/2bae699ec4e3404ed9265c45.docx"},{"id":94238916,"identity":"27f4048a-ff6f-4649-9536-dc593812dc21","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":342,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs7931403.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/36c8f7a813efa336a8f1c5d6.json"},{"id":94238294,"identity":"e0bf4e8c-f4b5-4df0-8e5f-204ae0ae1bf9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":157083,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs79314030enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/32df2039c2977af56bb508be.xml"},{"id":94238297,"identity":"b1a290d9-66fa-4d67-a6f9-5d9fb0c352b1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":575852,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/aee1cd6d3b20115ad5cebec5.png"},{"id":94238298,"identity":"d416348d-d615-4ab8-876a-9db1b23757f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":672817,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/1ae787abe1c569a428a13fb1.png"},{"id":94238296,"identity":"3d2b4f14-8bff-4230-8871-bda0141c8226","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":25962,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/9cd335d0bd924dcd633d5d85.png"},{"id":94238917,"identity":"34675e4c-ae7c-4ffb-830f-94c70ec2e9b1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":30405,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/3e0ac7b39537a243f5533b31.png"},{"id":94238921,"identity":"885ce303-68b2-455e-b8de-830aa848d91c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1134970,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/2c82178e498d26527f88c81e.png"},{"id":94238922,"identity":"dcba3bbe-74c4-4ea3-9e7f-64767de76f56","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:34","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1688147,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/8ef9fa25c967698d03e9ac8a.png"},{"id":94238302,"identity":"cd2a72e5-a1d4-4765-8302-21c0937aa7ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":284087,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/7455153b5f3d7f9e912024cf.png"},{"id":94238918,"identity":"7aa6b99b-5194-4997-adc5-3d3d9b5c14aa","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":371007,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/b0e2ab259a1c97ab906f4053.png"},{"id":94238308,"identity":"0bf60f3a-c6e1-41d8-9acf-3ab956f007f6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":763227,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/03841a35ab86e1843cd9df94.png"},{"id":94238309,"identity":"3f4cb5c2-2a20-4671-9721-fd7d3aeaccef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":551807,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/cfac4e4879162acc4ad89995.png"},{"id":94238923,"identity":"cfedae79-a485-4866-9dff-3ac50c50be9b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:34","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":96312,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/1e3800f44cc8620a153f342f.png"},{"id":94238315,"identity":"93db3fa3-76d3-46a8-9cb2-d286ee1d92ef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:34","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":104195,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/7a33384eacc73d82f0d2d1cc.png"},{"id":94238299,"identity":"ebe5a211-f125-4318-9fbb-4bcc4fe5652c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4119,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/f122836cdf2c94d59574364a.png"},{"id":94238313,"identity":"c281521f-7ed0-477b-a0cd-055f677230e2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:34","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4774,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/5a942ef48d4e15ffa442e684.png"},{"id":94238310,"identity":"20f2961d-d541-4401-9f8a-0d4edaa9b496","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":82218,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/ec7b0a28c3f6fe7f5b5a8230.png"},{"id":94238306,"identity":"21f05068-83bf-4bcf-b7f5-474356b76b1c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":306473,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/ac3247a0617805619941ed98.png"},{"id":94238920,"identity":"306e1b24-62f1-4df2-a4fe-4f9db9eed522","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":52206,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/2819ec17fc9c9fa48aafb636.png"},{"id":94238305,"identity":"b3092a34-f6b7-4b2c-8fa2-0874aa63e317","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":69693,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/2a07d1e9658a2b5c17ccdaf4.png"},{"id":94238317,"identity":"391e700c-2a2e-4359-9ca3-95fa6f329940","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:34","extension":"png","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":136698,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/1cd2f4fb2c1ff11c02001398.png"},{"id":94238300,"identity":"7356aa45-dbc1-4c5d-a92b-b51c68ed05ff","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"png","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":106725,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/9eeedffd7e2db9b7531afbe1.png"},{"id":94238919,"identity":"290f66dc-6119-4c0e-8dfe-a9d6e9f8250a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:57:33","extension":"xml","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":155351,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"rs79314030structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/e1447af609fdc7ced2a137fe.xml"},{"id":94238312,"identity":"b87627b3-419d-4096-84d4-7d7c920ace6b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"html","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":166591,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/5b0a0c30f8a934dbefe81235.html"},{"id":94239025,"identity":"0ef822dc-7ef0-4d37-9edd-3df389709d6a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 03:05:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1625457,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"climatedynamicsyz01102025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1_covered_7b877710-7883-4228-bc5d-5a789a582196.pdf"},{"id":94238292,"identity":"fb119c86-4bcc-4c7b-bd0e-e6a61b357f64","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-24 02:49:33","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2071862,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"supplementaryinfoyz01102025.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7931403/v1/e407f88c0728b101f6c772c6.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eInformation flow causality reveals climate regime shifts during compound dry–hot events\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[{"identity":"f54a24da-8fe6-46e8-bd92-9a186b18976c","identifier":"10.13039/501100001659","name":"Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft","awardNumber":"450058266","order_by":0},{"identity":"cd615a8a-c459-481b-8c8f-5566893ffaed","identifier":"10.13039/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","awardNumber":"101088405","order_by":1},{"identity":"c5645353-2623-410b-88da-36e0b889b5e1","identifier":"10.13039/501100003130","name":"Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek","awardNumber":"G0AOO25N","order_by":2}],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Forschungszentrum Jülich","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Compound dry-hot events; Land-atmosphere coupling; Causal analysis; Regional climate model simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe intensification in the frequency and severity of compound dry\u0026ndash;hot events (CDHEs) threatens ecosystem stability worldwide. While land\u0026ndash;atmosphere coupling has been recognized as a key driver of CDHE evolution, the causal dynamics between land surface and atmospheric variables under compound extreme conditions remain insufficiently understood. Since the variability of mass and energy transfers in the climate system can be explained as the function of information fluxes, this study applies a causal inference framework based on information flow (IF) to quantify the influences of soil water content (SM) and shortwave radiation (R) on near-surface air temperature (T) during CDHEs. To this end, simulation results from the fully coupled regional climate system model Terrestrial System Modeling Platform over the pan-European model domain region are utilised. Our results reveal that the study domain is predominantly energy-limited, characterized by strong R to T coupling, though water-limited regimes prevail in southwest Europe, showing a stronger SM to T coupling. E.g., the 2003 European CDHE was characterized by a widespread regime shift from energy- to water-limited conditions, which reversed, following the precipitation that ended the event. A significant increase in positive IF from SM to T is identified as a key contributor to the extreme nature of the 2003 CDHE, driven by the persistently dry antecedent conditions. These findings ratify the critical role of spatio-temporal land-atmosphere coupling in shaping CDHE trajectories from the perspective of information theory. Moreover, the IF framework is a powerful diagnostic for uncovering causal drivers of extremes, evaluating climate models, and enhancing the predictability of ecosystem responses under compound climate extremes.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Information flow causality reveals climate regime shifts during compound dry–hot events","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-24 02:49:28","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7931403/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1ddeceb9-cda5-4152-a2ed-3e3b087a03e1","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":56768959,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-24T02:49:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-24 02:49:28","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7931403","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7931403","identity":"rs-7931403","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}