Occurrence and intensity: the future of precipitation in Europe and the Mediterranean

Occurrence and intensity: the future of precipitation in Europe and the Mediterranean | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Occurrence and intensity: the future of precipitation in Europe and the Mediterranean Julie ANDRE, Nicolas Chiabrando, Caroline Muller, Philippe Drobinski, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7698260/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is reshaping precipitation regimes across Europe and the Mediterranean, with distinct regional patterns and implications. Using a high-resolution 15-member Euro-CORDEX ensemble, changes in daily precipitation distributions are analyzed through a diagnostic framework that separates intensity shifts, shape distortions, and occurrence changes. Between the periods of 1950–2020 and +4°C global warming, Northern Europe shows a robust intensification of wet-days precipitation, driven by both stronger events and increased frequency. In contrast, the Mediterranean exhibits a dominant drying signal, primarily due to fewer rainy days—even for heavy precipitation. Transitional zones along the northern Mediterranean reveal “U-shape” regimes, where extremes increase while moderate rain declines. Comparisons with ERA5 confirm anthropogenic signals in the north but highlight uncertainty in the south due to internal variability and model disagreement. The timing of regime emergence varies: in terms of global warming levels (GWL) signals are robust at +1°C in Northern Europe, but delayed until +3–4°C in the Mediterranean. These findings inform risk-based adaptation strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementaryinformation.pdf Supplementary information: Effect of bias correction on precipitation regimes Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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