Green Finance Policies and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency：New Evidence from the Synthetic Difference - in - Differences Model

Green Finance Policies and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency：New Evidence from the Synthetic Difference - in - Differences Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Green Finance Policies and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency：New Evidence from the Synthetic Difference - in - Differences Model Zhonghao Lei, Junxia Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Green finance is pivotal in advancing the green and low-carbon transformation of economic systems. This study utilizes a balanced panel dataset comprising 279 cities in China from 2006 to 2022. It focuses on the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones, starting in 2017, as a quasi-natural experiment. The research employs the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) model to assess the policy's impact on urban carbon emission efficiency and the mechanisms driving these effects. The findings reveal that the introduction of the green finance reform and innovation pilot zones has led to a significant improvement in urban carbon emission efficiency. This policy effect is primarily driven by innovations in green technology and improvements in energy efficiency. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy is particularly effective in cities located within national urban agglomeration zones, large cities, and those that are not resource-based. Further investigation also shows that the green finance reform has contributed to a reduction in per capita carbon emissions, with a notable negative spatial spillover effect on urban carbon emission efficiency. This study not only enhances the analytical framework for evaluating the carbon reduction impacts of green finance policies but also provides empirical support for the further development of green finance and the cultivation of new drivers for a low-carbon economic transition. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Green finance Carbon emission efficiency Synthetic difference - in – differences Green technology innovation Energy utilization efficiency Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8195733","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":582323230,"identity":"cf191305-eded-4368-9a7f-ef59abe4ee50","order_by":0,"name":"Zhonghao Lei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhonghao","middleName":"","lastName":"Lei","suffix":""},{"id":582323231,"identity":"5262d155-30ad-4938-8ab9-7fc61a326ec4","order_by":1,"name":"Junxia Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA80lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRDBA8TMDMwPPlRIyMmTooXNcMYZC2PDBqK0QIE0Z1tFIsMBAjrkZzc/e/hF5nCewXHmB8aM8yQSGBuYHz66gUcL45xj5sYyPIeLJZvZDB4XbpPIY2dgMzbOwaOFWSLBTFqC53BiPzODgfHMbRLFjA08bNL4tLBJpH8Da2ljZv8gzTtHIrHhAAEtPBI5ZpIfwLbwGEjzNhChRUIip0yagSc9cWYzT5nhjGMSxobNBPwiPyN9m+TPHuvEDeePb37woaZOTp69+eFjfFpAgJm3B4VLQDkIMP74QYSqUTAKRsEoGLkAAL2ZRYqqTHNrAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junxia","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-24 16:53:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101693615,"identity":"81c66ba6-7d08-4941-8e62-cfce1cbe6269","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 16:27:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":571147,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptanonymous.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8195733/v1_covered_21e941e2-cfce-4977-b637-29e7c9c6feb4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Green Finance Policies and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency：New Evidence from the Synthetic Difference - in - Differences Model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Green finance, Carbon emission efficiency, Synthetic difference - in – differences, Green technology innovation, Energy utilization efficiency","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGreen finance is pivotal in advancing the green and low-carbon transformation of economic systems. This study utilizes a balanced panel dataset comprising 279 cities in China from 2006 to 2022. It focuses on the establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones, starting in 2017, as a quasi-natural experiment. The research employs the Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) model to assess the policy's impact on urban carbon emission efficiency and the mechanisms driving these effects. The findings reveal that the introduction of the green finance reform and innovation pilot zones has led to a significant improvement in urban carbon emission efficiency. This policy effect is primarily driven by innovations in green technology and improvements in energy efficiency. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy is particularly effective in cities located within national urban agglomeration zones, large cities, and those that are not resource-based. Further investigation also shows that the green finance reform has contributed to a reduction in per capita carbon emissions, with a notable negative spatial spillover effect on urban carbon emission efficiency. This study not only enhances the analytical framework for evaluating the carbon reduction impacts of green finance policies but also provides empirical support for the further development of green finance and the cultivation of new drivers for a low-carbon economic transition.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Green Finance Policies and Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency：New Evidence from the Synthetic Difference - in - Differences Model","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-30 04:40:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8195733/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5ee289bc-7440-4ca7-94d4-9e0431cde134","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 30th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":61951454,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":61951455,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-02T16:27:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-30 04:40:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8195733","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8195733","identity":"rs-8195733","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}