Coral reef Trajectories: Defining Health States and the Shift Toward Coping States

Coral reef Trajectories: Defining Health States and the Shift Toward Coping States | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 2 December 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Coral reef Trajectories: Defining Health States and the Shift Toward Coping States Authors : Kate Emily Whitton 0009-0005-2454-1199 [email protected] , Ana Paula Da Silva 0000-0001-8348-5899 , Maria Byrne , Sarah M Hamylton , Tristan Benjamin Salles 0000-0001-6095-7689 , Thomas E Fellowes 0000-0001-8220-4581 , Elaine Baker 0000-0001-9925-4403 , and Ana Vila-Concejo 0000-0003-4069-3094 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176463836.67004130/v1 144 views 132 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Coral reefs rely on maintaining a certain threshold of live coral cover to support essential ecological and geological functions such as habitat provisioning, vertical accretion, and wave attenuation. While it is well established that declining coral cover undermines these functions, the precise thresholds at which these losses trigger broader ecosystem collapse remain poorly defined—especially across reefs with naturally varying baseline conditions. To address this gap, our study investigates major shifts in benthic composition from 1995 to 2022 across three ecogeomorphologically distinct reefs spanning the northern, central, and southern Great Barrier Reef (Australia). Our study identified three primary reef states: a healthy state, characterised by high coral cover; a coping state, defined by intermediate coral cover, increased abiotic components, and a dominance of simple coral morphologies; and a struggling state, marked by low coral cover and high algal dominance. To define reef health states applicable across sites with differing baseline conditions, we standardised hard coral cover relative to each site’s long-term maximum. Based on these standardised values, healthy states were defined by 65–90% of the historical maximum cover, coping states by 30–50%, and struggling states by 15–35%. Reefs typically recovered from struggling to healthy states within a decade. Given this recovery potential, we suggest that rather than collapsing into long-term struggling states, increasing disturbance frequency will more likely lead reefs to stabilise in intermediate coping states—reducing structural complexity and carbonate production, thereby limiting their ability to keep pace with sea-level rise. Supplementary Material File (1041642_0_merged_1753317778.pdf) Download 2.21 MB File (reefstates_kw_biogeo.docx) Download 4.83 MB File (reefstates_supp.docx) Download 17.53 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 02 December 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords alternate states climate change community shifts coral reefs ecology ecomorphodynamics environmental sciences Authors Affiliations Kate Emily Whitton 0009-0005-2454-1199 [email protected] University of Sydney View all articles by this author Ana Paula Da Silva 0000-0001-8348-5899 University of Sydney View all articles by this author Maria Byrne School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney View all articles by this author Sarah M Hamylton School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong View all articles by this author Tristan Benjamin Salles 0000-0001-6095-7689 University of Sydney View all articles by this author Thomas E Fellowes 0000-0001-8220-4581 University of Sydney View all articles by this author Elaine Baker 0000-0001-9925-4403 7UNEP/GRID-Arendal, The University of Sydney View all articles by this author Ana Vila-Concejo 0000-0003-4069-3094 The University Of Sydney View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 144 views 132 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Kate Emily Whitton, Ana Paula Da Silva, Maria Byrne, et al. Coral reef Trajectories: Defining Health States and the Shift Toward Coping States. Authorea . 02 December 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176463836.67004130/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.176463836.67004130/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'9ffbcefd1dc34193',t:'MTc3OTQ1Mjc3OQ=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();