Double Trouble: Multiple infections and the coevolution of virulence-resistance in structured host-parasite populations

Abstract Parasite competition is a key factor driving the epidemiology and evolution of parasites, and is expected to modulate the selective pressures acting upon the host, and to alter its response to infection. Using a nested co-evolutionary model where epidemiological traits (transmission, virulence and recovery) are derived from within-host interactions between parasite strains, we analyse using adaptive dynamics methodology the joint evolution of parasite virulence and host resistance. We compare the predicted coevolutionarily stable states under different competition regimes, including single infections (preemption), superinfection (strain dominance) and coinfections (transient strain coexistence). We find that coinfections select for lower virulence compared to superinfection, while the opposite trend is observed for host resistance. The local coexistence of parasites in coinfected hosts creates a kin selection effect that reduces both parasite virulence and host response. We show that the magnitude of this effect depends on the ecological context, and notably the degree of coupling between hosts. Our work contributes to building the gap between metapopulation ecology and epidemiology. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Footnotes Minor changes related to document formatting and typo correction have been made. All the main text figures have been redrawn in a more esthetic way, and new ones are provided, according to reviewers's specific comments.