Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II. Risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions

Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II. Risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Case Report Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II. Risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions Weiliang Jin, Ning Lin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7963852/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change exacerbates tropical cyclones (TCs) induced flood risk that demands adaptations for vulnerable communities. Current studies often overlook hazard-adaptation interaction when modeling coastal inundation and apply “bathtub” flood modeling method which may overestimate flood risk. Here, we propose the Inundation Modeling-based Overtopping Risk Analysis (IMORA), where we model coastal inundations considering interactions between storm tide hazard and adaptation measures (in this study, a floodwall system) with a physics-based but computationally feasible method. We apply IMORA to assess adaptation strategies for lower Manhattan, NYC. We used large numbers of synthetic TCs to drive a storm tide model (ADCIRC) and an inundation model (SFINCS) to obtain inundations and damages with different floodwall levels. We calculated expected annual damages (EADs) and expected total damages (ETDs) with different floodwall levels. Considering the effect of sea level rise and storm intensification, we estimated ETDs from 2025 to 2100 with no adaptation to be $ 1.11 billion and $ 1.75 billion under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), respectively. We determined optimal floodwall elevations to be 18.25 feet and 18.75 feet with minimum net expected costs (ETD plus investment) of $ 36.7 million and $ 38.1 million under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The obtained optimal design levels are comparable to the design level proposed in USACE’s NYNJ-HATS coastal storm risk management for this region, although USACE’s analysis method is challenged. We find that assuming “bathtub” overestimates ETDs by up to 143% at the floodwall elevation of 18.75 ft compared to applying the IMORA framework. climate adaptation coastal resilience tropical cyclone inundation modeling flood damage flood overtopping Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 30 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 27 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7963852","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Case Report","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":537617829,"identity":"5c936ef8-1031-42cb-b553-0d386373fb80","order_by":0,"name":"Weiliang Jin","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6UlEQVRIie3NvQrCMBDA8YOALtE6piD4ChEhOhR9lZRCJulSkI6KUBfBta/h4pwS6BR1FVwUVwfdHBzEDxQcUkeH/Jcjx/0IgM32l633h2vsAaDPihYQjSjW4kX4TwSXapVEvR6/EJotcyB6HbYnlex0vnghlMcLYiRyJXY03kZ1VQ3clIsIcD4wEiZlm3K99VOEGcJc+UPSZ0WEkSxZPcn1ThrHIqKZO0rkk8DjF2wmPZkHLdBBRBBuuVMh/ASLqGMibqqyA8TdkDi6ebp4nj8rq/nGRIDIx+DvRcl4fs8ZfhGbzWazfXcDii1MdJTONAEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weiliang","middleName":"","lastName":"Jin","suffix":""},{"id":537617831,"identity":"29807a52-53a1-4c32-8e04-b43b538787a0","order_by":1,"name":"Ning Lin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ning","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-28 01:18:44","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7963852/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7963852/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03191-5","type":"published","date":"2026-03-16T15:59:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105223451,"identity":"05166eb4-2ef5-4848-9374-e1646eb7b0c8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-23 16:06:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1895171,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PartIInundationDraftFinalOct7.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7963852/v1_covered_5faeb53b-0155-40c9-b447-808388cb33d1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II. 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Current studies often overlook hazard-adaptation interaction when modeling coastal inundation and apply \u0026ldquo;bathtub\u0026rdquo; flood modeling method which may overestimate flood risk. Here, we propose the Inundation Modeling-based Overtopping Risk Analysis (IMORA), where we model coastal inundations considering interactions between storm tide hazard and adaptation measures (in this study, a floodwall system) with a physics-based but computationally feasible method. We apply IMORA to assess adaptation strategies for lower Manhattan, NYC. We used large numbers of synthetic TCs to drive a storm tide model (ADCIRC) and an inundation model (SFINCS) to obtain inundations and damages with different floodwall levels. We calculated expected annual damages (EADs) and expected total damages (ETDs) with different floodwall levels. Considering the effect of sea level rise and storm intensification, we estimated ETDs from 2025 to 2100 with no adaptation to be \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1.11\u0026nbsp;billion and \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1.75\u0026nbsp;billion under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), respectively. We determined optimal floodwall elevations to be 18.25 feet and 18.75 feet with minimum net expected costs (ETD plus investment) of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e36.7\u0026nbsp;million and \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e38.1\u0026nbsp;million under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The obtained optimal design levels are comparable to the design level proposed in USACE\u0026rsquo;s NYNJ-HATS coastal storm risk management for this region, although USACE\u0026rsquo;s analysis method is challenged. We find that assuming \u0026ldquo;bathtub\u0026rdquo; overestimates ETDs by up to 143% at the floodwall elevation of 18.75 ft compared to applying the IMORA framework.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II. 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