Assessing China’s COVID-19 Control Measures: A Quantitative Analysis Based on A SIRD model

Assessing China’s COVID-19 Control Measures: A Quantitative Analysis Based on A SIRD model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Assessing China’s COVID-19 Control Measures: A Quantitative Analysis Based on A SIRD model Yan Wu, Ming Yi, Daojun Bi, Hongzhong Fan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7853013/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper established a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model to fit and predict the COVID-19 epidemic in China. On the premise of passing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) robustness check, we counterfactually assessed the effectiveness of partial unlocking and vaccination policies. Our key findings are as follows: (1) The SIRD model predicted that China could fully contain COVID-19 in July, 2020, which is consistent with reality; (2) If the strict social distancing policies are relaxed before the epidemic ends, it will lead to a second rebound. Even worse, the rebound increases with the advance of relaxation time and relaxation degree; (3) Timely vaccination is the best strategy if it is available. However, delayed vaccination is much less effective. (4) When further taking natural population growth rates into account, we find that the principal conclusions remain robust. The inclusion of demographic dynamics helps mitigate potential fitting bias resulting from changes in population size over extended epidemic periods like the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirically, the model shows a certain degree of applicability in regions with similar transmission trends.This paper theoretically and quantitatively demonstrates the effectiveness of China's comprehensive prevention and control measures, and empirically verifies that the model has potential reference significance for some regions with similar transmission trends. Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics Health sciences/Diseases Health sciences/Health care Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing COVID-19 Social distancing Partial lockdown Vaccination SIRD model Natural Population Growth Rate Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files APPENDIX2EMPIRICALRESULTSOFItalyandBrizal.docx APPENDIX1DATA.rar Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 15 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 03 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 19 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7853013","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":545871654,"identity":"6703f0af-f5c1-4b09-b972-e8bc4d478cf7","order_by":0,"name":"Yan 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