Vessel Profiles in the Shadows: A Binary Logit Analysis of Technical and Operational Divergence in Global Tanker Fleets

Vessel Profiles in the Shadows: A Binary Logit Analysis of Technical and Operational Divergence in Global Tanker Fleets | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Vessel Profiles in the Shadows: A Binary Logit Analysis of Technical and Operational Divergence in Global Tanker Fleets Dionysios Polemis, Konstantinos Likas This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9098405/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This article examines whether sanction-designated crude tankers can be distinguished from the wider global fleet through vessel-level characteristics and a cross-validated screening model. Using 2,277 crude oil tankers from Clarksons SIN, of which 382 are positive on a composite designation indicator, the study separates structural inference from operational prediction. Logit and probit models with a spline age term show that designation risk is concentrated in older Aframax tonnage. Relative to Aframax vessels, Suezmaxes and VLCCs exhibit substantially lower odds of designation, while shuttle-tanker status is not robust. The age effect is distinctly non-linear, peaking in the early-to-mid twenties. A screening model that adds pooled flag information attains ROC-AUC 0.9306, PR-AUC 0.7288, and a Brier score of 0.0750. The results support vessel-centred triage, but the model is best interpreted as a designation-risk classifier rather than direct proof of latent shadow-fleet membership. shadow fleet crude tankers sanctions evasion maritime risk screening logistic regression designation risk Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. Konstantinos Likas reports employment with Deutsche Bank AG. Dr. Dionysios Polemis declares no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9098405","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":614864066,"identity":"2a39b4f0-b632-4453-b62d-304c35927dfd","order_by":0,"name":"Dionysios Polemis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Piraeus","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dionysios","middleName":"","lastName":"Polemis","suffix":""},{"id":614864071,"identity":"96e54bfd-c608-42df-bde6-a846e12c06ed","order_by":1,"name":"Konstantinos Likas","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCRiDDUwWSBgwMDAfkCao5QCQhmgxAGlhSyBOC4RrAIQMPAZ4tUi29x7+/KHmTh2fdPPhDwwGFsb8/Wc+3i5gsJPTbcCuRZrnXJrEgWPPJNhkjqVJAB1mJnEjd7P1DIZkY7MD2LXISeSYMRxgOyzBBmIAtdgw3ODdJs3DcCBxG24txh8O/ANrMf4A0iJ//swzvFqkJXIMJA62gbUYgB1mcCCHDa8WyZ4zZhJn+w5LtkmkpUkkGEgYG95IM7aeYYDbLxLHe4w/VHw7zC8/I/nwhw8VdYbzzh9+eLugwk4OlxZUkABnGRCjfBSMglEwCkYBLgAApl5UT/pki4UAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Deutsche Bank (Germany)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Konstantinos","middleName":"","lastName":"Likas","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-11 22:53:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9098405/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9098405/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106913911,"identity":"ba9de155-175e-4b64-a733-0bc50bb76888","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-14 17:25:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":776315,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PaperNo05Unmarked.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9098405/v1_covered_42c8a8b9-8ee2-4673-913a-3bbab43e4c12.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"Competing interest reported. 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