Assessing the potential sensitivity of Typhoon Nesat to climate change under SSP5-8.5 scenario

Assessing the potential sensitivity of Typhoon Nesat to climate change under SSP5-8.5 scenario | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing the potential sensitivity of Typhoon Nesat to climate change under SSP5-8.5 scenario Yujie Chai, Ioan Nistor, Abdolmajid Mohammadian, Ryota Nakamura This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5686974/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In the context of climate change, understanding how future conditions influence typhoons has become a topic of interest for researchers. However, there is no consensus on how typhoons are projected to change, and the knowledge of how climate variables will affect them is still limited. This study aims to enhance the understanding of drivers of typhoons modifications under climate change through applying pseudo global warming (PGW) technique based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under SSP5-8.5 scenario by 2100, taking Typhoon Nesat as a case study. At first, a mini-ensemble of WRF models with optimal performance in representing historical Typhoon Nesat were selected. Subsequently, PGW experiments based on this mini-ensemble were then carried out. To recognize the impacts of different climate factors, four (4) conditions were set in PGW fields: (1) only sea surface temperature (SST); (2) SST and air temperature (AT); (3) SST, AT, relative humidity (RH), and geopotential height (GPH); (4) SST, AT, RH, GPH, and wind velocity. The projections suggest that events similar to Typhoon Nesat will become more intense under future global warming conditions. Specifically, warmer SST plays the dominant role on its intensification, while increases in AT will mitigate some of this effect. These results indicate that in the context of climate change, the intensity of typhoons is likely to increase in the future. This study provides novel information which can help the development of local disaster countermeasures and with the purpose of enhancing the resiliency of local communities. Typhoon Nesat Climate change SSP5-8.5 scenario WRF PGW experiment Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 15 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Jan, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Jan, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Dec, 2024 First submitted to journal 20 Dec, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5686974","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":398864499,"identity":"7571229b-ba5a-44f0-b670-ead512d8447b","order_by":0,"name":"Yujie Chai","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIie3NMQrCMBTG8YRCuwRd00mPECkUF/UqDYFORRw7OLwpbrp6jIIXiBTsku6VLorg3Emc1Lo6pLo55D8+vh8PIZvtLyMIRew57f9IUkf4gDCorwnSDs7Ut4QV5b45S9cJKlFcmmU+QF5+MhM9F5RL0gurmIM65CMgMTOTirCWUCeskhEot8ZAUScJ7lwyvNu+yaOeAfWaLhLSSEc4oy3Zy5oDJeYvvk7CcZQqQfWVb8v1U0iSLIykV+jgeGdq2l8J1aS3eLLxisxIhurz4hr3bQPoWthsNpvtBfWMTnHIU40fAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Ottawa","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yujie","middleName":"","lastName":"Chai","suffix":""},{"id":398864500,"identity":"8a28ad9e-45a4-427a-85f5-8ffa28797701","order_by":1,"name":"Ioan Nistor","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Ottawa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ioan","middleName":"","lastName":"Nistor","suffix":""},{"id":398864501,"identity":"d3a01cc3-272d-4500-bd7a-431cbc491d75","order_by":2,"name":"Abdolmajid Mohammadian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Ottawa","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdolmajid","middleName":"","lastName":"Mohammadian","suffix":""},{"id":398864502,"identity":"0ad05e2e-853a-43f8-b5e0-cd7957e3e31a","order_by":3,"name":"Ryota Nakamura","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Niigata University: Niigata Daigaku","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ryota","middleName":"","lastName":"Nakamura","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-20 22:42:42","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5686974/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5686974/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07770-0","type":"published","date":"2025-07-11T15:56:59+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86699250,"identity":"a52ca4d4-7b44-4785-9eb4-4937f42fea20","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-14 16:05:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1815517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"YujieChaimanuscriptuOttawa1220.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5686974/v1_covered_b0bceeae-7dcc-4b92-b881-934e2710c7ca.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Assessing the potential sensitivity of Typhoon Nesat to climate change under SSP5-8.5 scenario","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Typhoon Nesat, Climate change, SSP5-8.5 scenario, WRF, PGW experiment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5686974/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5686974/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn the context of climate change, understanding how future conditions influence typhoons has become a topic of interest for researchers. 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