From Ghost Kitchens to Carbon Taxes: Tracing the Butterfly Effect of Urban Food Delivery Safety Concerns through Machine Learning

From Ghost Kitchens to Carbon Taxes: Tracing the Butterfly Effect of Urban Food Delivery Safety Concerns through Machine Learning | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From Ghost Kitchens to Carbon Taxes: Tracing the Butterfly Effect of Urban Food Delivery Safety Concerns through Machine Learning 唐 伊宁 This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6476840/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The pandemic-related working from home have further expanded the demand for delivery food APPs, forging instant highway connecting global urban kitchens to consumers' palates. However, the voices of residents questioning the urban ghost kitchens (Takeout-exclusive commercial kitchens lacking on-site dining options) triggered urban food safety concern(UFSC) have been overlooked by researchers. Studies about food delivery(FD) mostly focused on heat exposure, carbon emissions and traffic. Little attention has been paid to the effects of this urban shadows on climate policy. To address this gap, this study focused on the urban public acceptability of carbon tax, for the first time revealing the unexpectedly impact of UFSC on willingness to pay carbon tax (WPT). The findings based on 162,036 interviewees indicate : (1) The ghost kitchen crisis counterintuitively speed up climate policy acceptance. UFSC boosts consumers' willingness to WPT. The more anxious the public is, the more residents want to pay carbon taxes to improve urban environments; (2) UFSC amplifies the impact of environmental strategy knowledge (ESK) on WPT via a dual-channel effect and actively moderates the relationship between environmental protection purchase decisions (EPPD) and WPT, unveiling a nuanced behavioral spillover mechanism comprising behavioral priming (EPPD-UFSC) and cognitive amplification (UFSC-WPT); (3) Inequalities shape the heterogeneity of policy acceptance. For residents with high levels of concern about ghost kitchens, class identity is the primary driver of their high WPT, with carbon tax seen as a "premium for sustainability halo" because of their relatively strong economic capacity. While for those with moderate to low levels, a large number of family members is the main driver behind their high WPT (for big family’ health burden). These findings are crucial for fostering widespread acceptance and support for climate policies and urban equality. Social science/Social policy Social science/Environmental studies Social science/Psychology/Human behaviour Urban Delivery Food Safety Ghost Kitchens Carbon Taxes Machine Learning Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6476840","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":446448068,"identity":"3e6e40e9-5f69-4ec5-aec7-972386ab578d","order_by":0,"name":"唐 伊宁","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADfv4DQNIGiIG0BEHlIMWSM5KBZBopWgxuMBOphX9278HPH2ru2G2+wX/wc0GCTT7fAeaDt3nwaJG4cy5Z4sCxZ8nbzh9mlp6RkGY58wBbsjU+LQw3cgwkDrAdTjY7kMwgzfvjsIHBAR4zaXxa5G/kGP848O9wsnFDMvNvngSQFv5veLUY3MgxkzjYdtjOgCGZTRqihYcNrxZDoBaLs32HEyRuJJtZ8ySkGUgeZjO2nINHixzQYTcqvh225+8/+Pg2T4KNAd/x5oc33uDzPhQkNsCZzEQoBwF7ItWNglEwCkbBSAQARN1RWltjs7wAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9108-979X","institution":"斯坦福大学","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"唐","middleName":"","lastName":"伊宁","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-18 07:20:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6476840/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6476840/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102962917,"identity":"fd1a5b0f-1352-4f92-b0af-ee3db5509f2e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-19 04:12:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1177693,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"2.manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6476840/v1_covered_1c9bf3eb-1165-4144-adc9-818ffd50aeb5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"From Ghost Kitchens to Carbon Taxes: Tracing the Butterfly Effect of\r\nUrban Food Delivery Safety Concerns through Machine Learning","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urban Delivery Food Safety, Ghost Kitchens, Carbon Taxes, Machine Learning","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6476840/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6476840/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe pandemic-related working from home have further expanded the demand for delivery food APPs, forging instant highway connecting global urban kitchens to consumers' palates. \u003cspan type=\"BoldUnderline\" class=\"BoldUnderline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eHowever, the voices of residents questioning the urban ghost kitchens (Takeout-exclusive commercial kitchens lacking on-site dining options) triggered urban food safety concern(UFSC) have been overlooked by researchers.\u003c/span\u003e Studies about food delivery(FD) mostly focused on heat exposure, carbon emissions and traffic. Little attention has been paid to the effects of this urban shadows on climate policy. \u003cspan type=\"BoldUnderline\" class=\"BoldUnderline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003eTo address this gap, this study focused on the urban public acceptability of carbon tax, for the first time revealing the unexpectedly impact of UFSC on willingness to pay carbon tax (WPT). The findings based on 162,036 interviewees indicate\u003c/span\u003e: \u003cb\u003e(1)\u003c/b\u003eThe ghost kitchen crisis counterintuitively speed up climate policy acceptance. UFSC boosts consumers' willingness to WPT. The more anxious the public is, the more residents want to pay carbon taxes to improve urban environments; \u003cb\u003e(2)\u003c/b\u003eUFSC amplifies the impact of environmental strategy knowledge (ESK) on WPT via a dual-channel effect and actively moderates the relationship between environmental protection purchase decisions (EPPD) and WPT, unveiling a nuanced behavioral spillover mechanism comprising behavioral priming (EPPD-UFSC) and cognitive amplification (UFSC-WPT); \u003cb\u003e(3)\u003c/b\u003eInequalities shape the heterogeneity of policy acceptance. For residents with high levels of concern about ghost kitchens, class identity is the primary driver of their high WPT, with carbon tax seen as a \"premium for sustainability halo\" because of their relatively strong economic capacity. While for those with moderate to low levels, a large number of family members is the main driver behind their high WPT (for big family\u0026rsquo; health burden). 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