Spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony induced by climate change threatens the integrity of the avian migration network

Spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony induced by climate change threatens the integrity of the avian migration network | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony induced by climate change threatens the integrity of the avian migration network Jie Wei, Eleanor Cole, Ben Sheldon, Willem de Boer, Ben Wielstra, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1792779/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 17 Jan, 2024 Read the published version in Global Change Biology → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing mismatch between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along traditional migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate changes could cause this phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become mismatched. This so-called spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony could pose a challenge by reducing food intake along the migration path and consequently influencing survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the risks of, and the drivers behind, the spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced spatial-temporal phenological asynchrony could cause in average 48% loss of migration network connectivity for all study species. Species that winter at a lower latitude or that have a wider migration corridor are subjected to higher risk to the integrity of their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change, and our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general and contribute to formulate targeted actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks. Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationUpdated20220709.docx Supplementary Information RCodes.zip Supplementary R codes Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 17 Jan, 2024 Read the published version in Global Change Biology → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1792779","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":121075578,"identity":"ceabe3bb-34e0-4e3b-a8ae-a4a2c8975afb","order_by":0,"name":"Jie Wei","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7280-2059","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jie","middleName":"","lastName":"Wei","suffix":""},{"id":121075579,"identity":"a9756b0a-59eb-4330-affc-474ecb204493","order_by":1,"name":"Eleanor Cole","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of 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