An analysis of minimum potential visibility and forecasting of fog for Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi (India)

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D. Kotal, M. Mohapatra This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4206365/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The range of visibility largely depends upon the meteorological parameters. A visibility parameter, termed as visibility potential parameter (VPP) is proposed to estimate minimum potential visibility (MPV) during foggy morning. The parameter is defined as the product of two variables, namely temperature, and the inverse of relative humidity. The whole VPP range (0.5-8.5) is divided into sixteen groups from lowest group (0.5-1.0) to highest group (8.1-8.5). The analysis of VPP for the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi (India) shows that all the very dense (visibility: <50 m) fog cases and 98.8% of dense fog (visibility: 50-199 m) cases occurred in the lowest two groups of VPP (0.5-1.0) and (1.1-1.5). The entire moderate (visibility: 200-499 m) fog cases and 93.5% of shallow (visibility: 500-999 m) fog cases occurred in the lowest three VPP groups. The probabilities of occurrence of fog for the lowest three VPP groups are 61%, 43.5%, and 25.9% respectively. The empirical relationship between VPP and MPV is found to be linear. Rapid update of initial error in statistical post-processing (RUPP) forecast is also proposed for improvement of visibility forecasts. The improvement of error ranged from 20% to 87.7% for forecast update period from 1200 UTC to 0000 UTC. Results of this study show that the MPV could provide useful guidance to forecasters about the possible lowest visibility, and use of recent trend than mean trend of past visibility with respect to VPP and successive removal of error structure in the forecast trajectory can improve the forecasts. Fog Visibility Temperature Relative humidity Minimum Potential Visibility probability forecast IGI airport (New Delhi India) Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revisions 14 Jun, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Apr, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 03 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 02 Apr, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4206365","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":293682946,"identity":"54ef62d8-ffc8-4005-9864-196d44be467f","order_by":0,"name":"S. D. 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A visibility parameter, termed as visibility potential parameter (VPP) is proposed to estimate minimum potential visibility (MPV) during foggy morning. The parameter is defined as the product of two variables, namely temperature, and the inverse of relative humidity. The whole VPP range (0.5-8.5) is divided into sixteen groups from lowest group (0.5-1.0) to highest group (8.1-8.5). The analysis of VPP for the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi (India) shows that all the very dense (visibility: \u0026lt;50 m) fog cases and 98.8% of dense fog (visibility: 50-199 m) cases occurred in the lowest two groups of VPP (0.5-1.0) and (1.1-1.5). The entire moderate (visibility: 200-499 m) fog cases and 93.5% of shallow (visibility: 500-999 m) fog cases occurred in the lowest three VPP groups. The probabilities of occurrence of fog for the lowest three VPP groups are 61%, 43.5%, and 25.9% respectively. The empirical relationship between VPP and MPV is found to be linear. Rapid update of initial error in statistical post-processing (RUPP) forecast is also proposed for improvement of visibility forecasts. The improvement of error ranged from 20% to 87.7% for forecast update period from 1200 UTC to 0000 UTC. Results of this study show that the MPV could provide useful guidance to forecasters about the possible lowest visibility, and use of recent trend than mean trend of past visibility with respect to VPP and successive removal of error structure in the forecast trajectory can improve the forecasts.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"An analysis of minimum potential visibility and forecasting of fog for Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi (India)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-04-26 20:27:09","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4206365/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revisions","date":"2024-06-14T04:16:23+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2024-04-22T04:37:02+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-04-21T12:35:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-04-03T13:11:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2024-04-02T07:33:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"de0849c3-a95e-4ad7-8984-6d43419d24a1","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 26th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-08-22T19:42:36+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4206365","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06858-w","journal":{"identity":"natural-hazards","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Natural Hazards"},"publishedOn":"2024-08-16 15:58:12","publishedOnDateReadable":"August 16th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-04-26 20:27:09","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11069-024-06858-w","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06858-w","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4206365","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4206365","identity":"rs-4206365","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}