Optimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability

Optimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Optimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability Divya Upadhyay, Udit Bhatia This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920505/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change projections, essential for water resource management, are dominated by multiple sources of uncertainty, including scenario uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability (ICV). The latter is often classified as irreducible and thereby overlooked in traditional decision-making processes on regional and local scales. Our study translates these traditionally irreducible uncertainties into actionable insights by leveraging multiple initial condition ensemble (MICE) outputs, a physically based hydrological model and a multiobjective stochastic optimisation approach. We focus on the Sardar Sarovar Dam in Gujarat, India, a multipurpose reservoir integral to flood control, hydropower generation and meeting diverse water demands under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). We find that for the multipurpose reservoir under consideration, despite considering a broad spectrum of outputs, which are equally plausible due to the inherent variability of the climate, the system is highly reliable for meeting the drinking water supply for the region for the next century, although at the cost of agricultural and industrial water supply. Incorporating ICV provides a robust assessment of system attributes, including reliability, vulnerability, and resilience, particularly when these objectives are in trade-off with each other. Our study emphasizes the critical role of accounting for ICV in water resource planning. This analytical approach allows stakeholders to pinpoint specific vulnerabilities, allowing targeted planning for more adaptable and resilient water resource management strategies, including sustainable water supply and flood control. Climate Analysis and Modeling Agricultural Economics & Policy Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files ArxivstylereservoiroperationSI.pdf Additional Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3920505","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":270629759,"identity":"76ab0dec-2830-41b8-8c06-e2b0ec78ea03","order_by":0,"name":"Divya Upadhyay","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9890-1311","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, India","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Divya","middleName":"","lastName":"Upadhyay","suffix":""},{"id":270630966,"identity":"afa80725-7c36-4832-81b5-7a7550517785","order_by":1,"name":"Udit Bhatia","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA30lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwkgkQDE/MyMDVAxOAOnFsYGkBbJZsbGBuK1gBkHCCmFAXPp5ucPHtQwJG4+ztz+8OsOBnn+Bua2B/i0WM45ZtiQcIwhcdthxsZm2TMMhjMOMLYb4HXYjQSgFjaoFsk2BsYNDIxtEvi1pH9sSPgHdFgzRIs9EVpyDBsS2xgSNzAzNjZ+BDEIabGckVM4I7FPwngG0GGzgYqTgQz8Wswl0jd8/PHNRra///iDjz/bbGz729uf4dUCBRA1zDwgBjMR6uGA8QcpqkfBKBgFo2DEAAA3xktwXqdClgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0017-9085","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, India","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Udit","middleName":"","lastName":"Bhatia","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-02-02 10:22:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920505/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920505/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":50703892,"identity":"236e44a6-f0cf-4e6b-8079-9060ee5ccc30","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-02-06 05:23:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2448069,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Arxivstylereservoiroperation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3920505/v1_covered_f537d229-41f1-4678-b85d-dff99eb098d1.pdf"},{"id":50702863,"identity":"15d43ee6-0947-42bf-9bbc-214370cd63eb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-02-06 05:14:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":6845704,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional Information\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"ArxivstylereservoiroperationSI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3920505/v1/1a0f2dc077ffe8c071fe6550.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eOptimizing Reservoir Operation With Demand Uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"IIT Gandhinagar","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920505/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3920505/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate change projections, essential for water resource management, are dominated by multiple sources of uncertainty, including scenario uncertainty and Internal Climate Variability (ICV). The latter is often classified as irreducible and thereby overlooked in traditional decision-making processes on regional and local scales. Our study translates these traditionally irreducible uncertainties into actionable insights by leveraging multiple initial condition ensemble (MICE) outputs, a physically based hydrological model and a multiobjective stochastic optimisation approach. We focus on the Sardar Sarovar Dam in Gujarat, India, a multipurpose reservoir integral to flood control, hydropower generation and meeting diverse water demands under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). We find that for the multipurpose reservoir under consideration, despite considering a broad spectrum of outputs, which are equally plausible due to the inherent variability of the climate, the system is highly reliable for meeting the drinking water supply for the region for the next\u003cbr\u003e\ncentury, although at the cost of agricultural and industrial water supply. 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