Non-random patterns in the co-occurrence and accumulation of adverse life events in two national panel datasets

Non-random patterns in the co-occurrence and accumulation of adverse life events in two national panel datasets | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Non-random patterns in the co-occurrence and accumulation of adverse life events in two national panel datasets Kyra Evers, Denny Borsboom, Eiko Fried, Fred Hasselman, Frantisek Bartos, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6688053/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Psychology → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Adverse life events (ALEs), such as illness, bereavement, and accidents, can have profound consequences for physical and mental health. Although existing research highlights structural predictors of ALEs, such as personality and socioeconomic status, less is known about patterns in ALEs themselves. How do events cluster and accumulate over time? Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, we study yearly self-reported ALEs in two panel datasets, the Swiss Household Panel (n = 16,946, 210,031 person-years) and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (n = 25,803, 113,605 person-years). We identify widespread contemporaneous and lag-1 associations between ALEs. The twenty-year accumulation of ALE counts deviates substantially from a random process and is better described by a self-reinforcing process, in which ALEs increase the risk of future ALEs. For all analyses, variance in ALE risk was explained largely by unobserved heterogeneity between individuals and households. Structural patterns in ALEs should inform our conceptual and statistical models, as well as our prevention strategies. Social science/Psychology/Human behaviour Health sciences/Risk factors Social science/Sociology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Psychology → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6688053","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":466474354,"identity":"2ddece42-c429-4338-9ddc-30ba17ebbccd","order_by":0,"name":"Kyra Evers","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCRTeByBmYydFC+MMkBZmUrQw84BJAlokZ+Q+/MBQwyBncLz38WebX9vk+ZgZGD98zMGtRVoi3ViC4RiDscGZ42bSuX23DduYGZglZ27DrUVOIo1BgrGBIXHmjDQ25tye24xALWzMvPi1MP8AaqmfOf8Z82fLntv2BLVIS6SxgWxJ4JdgY5Bm+HE7kaAWyZ5nbBYJxyQM+3nS2CR7G24ntzEzNuP1i8TxNOYbH2ps5NnYjzF/+PHntu389uaDHz7i0cIgkMDAkACLHsY2MNmARz0Q8B9A5v3Br3gUjIJRMApGJgAAy4FEadIjnf0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6890-3482","institution":"University of Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kyra","middleName":"","lastName":"Evers","suffix":""},{"id":466474355,"identity":"cfcc6495-fd56-4fc8-b9cb-67d4300de3da","order_by":1,"name":"Denny Borsboom","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Denny","middleName":"","lastName":"Borsboom","suffix":""},{"id":466474356,"identity":"5de1e22a-a50a-437d-ac84-a049589e4710","order_by":2,"name":"Eiko Fried","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Leiden University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eiko","middleName":"","lastName":"Fried","suffix":""},{"id":466474357,"identity":"8a4ec2aa-2ab8-4598-b471-c40fafc14a09","order_by":3,"name":"Fred Hasselman","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1384-8361","institution":"Radboud Universiteit","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fred","middleName":"","lastName":"Hasselman","suffix":""},{"id":466474358,"identity":"f651168e-4ffe-4652-866b-0205bfbbcfd7","order_by":4,"name":"Frantisek Bartos","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frantisek","middleName":"","lastName":"Bartos","suffix":""},{"id":466474359,"identity":"58d33ce3-3cf1-4507-9f16-3d93f92edc9a","order_by":5,"name":"Lourens Waldorp","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-4625","institution":"University of Amsterdam","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lourens","middleName":"","lastName":"Waldorp","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-17 15:55:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6688053/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6688053/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s44271-026-00394-y","type":"published","date":"2026-02-27T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106583875,"identity":"50117e1e-551b-464d-aac2-84f5367c637e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-10 07:14:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":12791299,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"main20250517.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6688053/v1_covered_3c80e609-112d-4e02-976d-27bba2f707be.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Non-random patterns in the co-occurrence and accumulation of adverse life events in two national panel datasets","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6688053/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6688053/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Adverse life events (ALEs), such as illness, bereavement, and accidents, can have profound consequences for physical and mental health. 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