The "recognition", "belief", and "action" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan

The "recognition", "belief", and "action" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The "recognition", "belief", and "action" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan Tsukasa Tanihara, Taich Murayama, Dongwoo Lim, Akira Matsui This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6263282/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Conspiracy theories present significant societal challenges, shaping political behavior, undermining public trust, and destabilizing social cohesion. Addressing their impact requires recognizing that engagement with conspiracy theories is not a singular act but a multi-stage process characterized by distinct cognitive and behavioral transitions. In this study, we investigate this sequential progression, "recognition", "belief", and "action" (demonstrative action and diffusion action), using nationally representative surveys from the United States (N=13,578) and Japan (N=16,693). Applying a Bayesian hierarchical model, we identify the key social, political, and economic factors that drive engagement at each stage, providing a structured framework for understanding the mechanisms of conspiracy theory adoption and dissemination. We find that recognition serves as a crucial gateway to belief, with distinct factors shaping demonstrative and diffusion actions. Demonstrative actions are more prevalent among younger, high-status individuals with strong political orientations, while diffusion actions span a broader demographic, particularly among those actively engaged with diverse media channels. Our findings further reveal that early-life economic and cultural capital significantly influence the form of conspiratorial engagement, emphasizing the role of life course experiences. These insights highlight the necessity of targeted interventions addressing structural, cultural, and psychological factors to mitigate the proliferation and societal impact of conspiracy theories. Social science/Science, technology and society Social science/Cultural and media studies Conspiracy theory Cross-national comparison Socioeconomic status Media usage Demonstrative action Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Ethical Statement: This study was approved by the Ritsumeikan University Ethics Review Committee (Approval Number: Kinugasa-Human-2024-46). Informed consent was obtained from all participants. Respondents agreed to participate in the survey and consented to the academic use and publication of their responses. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationConspiracyInterview.pdf Supplementary Information of The "recognition," "belief," and "action" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6263282","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":437660145,"identity":"b3aa599a-065f-4eee-b267-85630d09cd3b","order_by":0,"name":"Tsukasa Tanihara","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Ritsumeikan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tsukasa","middleName":"","lastName":"Tanihara","suffix":""},{"id":437660146,"identity":"bd73b7de-3e59-4ff4-b543-777bbd2ab9f1","order_by":1,"name":"Taich Murayama","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1148-711X","institution":"Yokohama National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Taich","middleName":"","lastName":"Murayama","suffix":""},{"id":437660147,"identity":"387e1dd7-ba23-478d-85c2-b674fec099c4","order_by":2,"name":"Dongwoo Lim","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2516-432X","institution":"Tsuda University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dongwoo","middleName":"","lastName":"Lim","suffix":""},{"id":437660148,"identity":"ada5c869-19b3-4cee-be0c-9b9d2e4bb532","order_by":3,"name":"Akira Matsui","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3953-378X","institution":"Yokohama National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Akira","middleName":"","lastName":"Matsui","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-19 16:10:43","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6263282/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6263282/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81006190,"identity":"45a1fc7d-ceb3-40c2-8207-8128d236e4f3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-21 07:10:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4910876,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MainConspiracyInterview.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6263282/v1_covered_5ae78ed8-69a6-4d79-aedb-83081e3e792d.pdf"},{"id":81005521,"identity":"e8fdac69-3466-4d6d-9fb5-1d4f57d0c319","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-21 07:01:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":54979115,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information of The \"recognition,\" \"belief,\" and \"action\" regarding conspiracy theories: An empirical study using large-scale samples from the United States and Japan","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformationConspiracyInterview.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6263282/v1/a9b9c3fa3cbf3e7851c03be5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eThere is \u003cstrong\u003eNO\u003c/strong\u003e Competing Interest.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;Ethical Statement: This study was approved by the Ritsumeikan University Ethics Review Committee (Approval Number: Kinugasa-Human-2024-46). 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