Climate Variability, Land Use, and Rice Production Dynamics in the Asutifi South District of Ghana

Climate Variability, Land Use, and Rice Production Dynamics in the Asutifi South District of Ghana | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Variability, Land Use, and Rice Production Dynamics in the Asutifi South District of Ghana Jacob Kwakye¹, Daniel Amoako Kwadwo² This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8039928/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change continues to reshape the boundaries of agricultural production worldwide, exerting profound effects on crop growth, water availability, and food security. In tropical Africa, rising temperatures and irregular rainfall threaten staple crops such as rice, which is highly sensitive to fluctuations in water supply and thermal stress. This study investigates the effects of seasonal temperature, rainfall variability, and cultivated area on rice yield in the Asutifi South District of Ghana over 30 years (1993–2022). Using data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the research employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and multiple regression modeling to assess how climatic and management factors influence yield outcomes. The results reveal significant warming trends in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside increased rainfall variability. Regression analysis shows that minimum temperature positively and significantly affects yield ( β = 0.562, p = 0.035), whereas maximum temperature has a negative but statistically weak effect ( β = −0.194, p = 0.277). Rainfall anomaly shows a positive but insignificant relationship ( β = 0.268, p = 0.420). Cultivated area, however, exhibits a strong positive influence on yield ( β = 0.000977, p < 0.001), explaining 59.1% of total variation. The findings demonstrate that rice productivity in the district is more strongly driven by management and land-use factors than by moderate climatic fluctuations. The study highlights the need for climate-smart strategies that integrate efficient land management, irrigation, and adaptive agronomic practices to sustain rice production under changing climate conditions. Climate Variability Rice Production Cultivated Area Temperature and Rainfall Trends Asutifi South District Ghana Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 17 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 01 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 17 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 05 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8039928","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":548844198,"identity":"0a842dd7-1aed-4405-a047-d1cb78d22a31","order_by":0,"name":"Jacob 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Ghana","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate Variability, Rice Production, Cultivated Area, Temperature and Rainfall Trends, Asutifi South District, Ghana","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8039928/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8039928/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate change continues to reshape the boundaries of agricultural production worldwide, exerting profound effects on crop growth, water availability, and food security. In tropical Africa, rising temperatures and irregular rainfall threaten staple crops such as rice, which is highly sensitive to fluctuations in water supply and thermal stress. This study investigates the effects of seasonal temperature, rainfall variability, and cultivated area on rice yield in the Asutifi South District of Ghana over 30 years (1993\u0026ndash;2022). Using data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the research employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and multiple regression modeling to assess how climatic and management factors influence yield outcomes. The results reveal significant warming trends in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside increased rainfall variability. Regression analysis shows that minimum temperature positively and significantly affects yield (\u003cem\u003eβ\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.562, p\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.035), whereas maximum temperature has a negative but statistically weak effect (\u003cem\u003eβ\u003c/em\u003e = \u0026minus;0.194, p\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.277). Rainfall anomaly shows a positive but insignificant relationship (\u003cem\u003eβ\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.268, p\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.420). Cultivated area, however, exhibits a strong positive influence on yield (\u003cem\u003eβ\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.000977, \u003cem\u003ep\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.001), explaining 59.1% of total variation. The findings demonstrate that rice productivity in the district is more strongly driven by management and land-use factors than by moderate climatic fluctuations. The study highlights the need for climate-smart strategies that integrate efficient land management, irrigation, and adaptive agronomic practices to sustain rice production under changing climate conditions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Climate Variability, Land Use, and Rice Production Dynamics in the Asutifi South District of Ghana","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-26 14:29:50","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8039928/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-02-17T12:21:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-01T08:13:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"226848731725341450744173180119615543733","date":"2026-01-21T13:20:36+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-09T10:45:05+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"231585080436440447504656823618152719195","date":"2026-01-02T11:00:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-21T16:11:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"3042448049362141457541243567253299819","date":"2025-11-18T02:22:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-18T02:02:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-10T18:15:43+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-11-10T18:13:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Sustainability","date":"2025-11-05T15:21:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ec181333-119d-4248-8d31-d755e8718dd0","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 26th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-27T07:58:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-26 14:29:50","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8039928","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8039928","identity":"rs-8039928","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}