Assessing the local impacts of increasing high-temperature extremes at Euro-Mediterranean airports on aircraft takeoff performance

Assessing the local impacts of increasing high-temperature extremes at Euro-Mediterranean airports on aircraft takeoff performance | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing the local impacts of increasing high-temperature extremes at Euro-Mediterranean airports on aircraft takeoff performance Victoria Gallardo, Emilia Sánchez-Gómez, Eleonore Riber, Serge Bonnet, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5506721/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climatic Change → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The increasing intensity and frequency of high-temperature extreme events due to climate change negatively affects aircraft takeoff performances. Warmer near-surface air temperatures result in lower aircraft lift and engine thrust, thereby reducing the aircraft’s weight-lifting capacity at takeoff. This study evaluates the potential impact of the future changes in high-temperature extremes on the aircraft’s Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) at the airports in the Euro-Mediterranean region —a climate change hotspot. Major, regional and small airports are considered. First, the evolution of high-temperature extremes at the airports is assessed using climate observations for the baseline period 1961-1990, and future climate projections under the most severe climate change scenario RCP8.5 for the periods 2021-2050 (near-term future) and 2041-2071 (medium-term future). Simulations from both Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs) belonging to the Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 frameworks, respectively, are considered in a Multi-Model Ensemble approach. Second, the MTOW is obtained by combining the climate data with aircraft technical data and applying an empirical law from the aeronautical sector, which relates the MTOW to the ambient temperature. The induced changes in MTOWare estimated for widebody, narrow-body and small regional aircrafts, widely used in global commercial aviation. Results indicate that most of Euro-Mediterranean airports could experience a decrease in MTOW, as early as the next three decades, at least for one aircraft type. For wide-bodies and narrow-bodies, these reductions are of the order of tons, according to the MME means of the RCMs and the GCMs: up to 7 tons in the near term and up to 11 tons in the medium term. Regional aircrafts would experience MTOW reductions of hundreds of kgs. This could have a socio-economic impact, either from possible weight restrictions, flight delays or cancellations. The results of this study could guide the design of adaptation strategies at the European level, aimed at building a climate change-resilient aviation network and ensuring that European aviation will be prepared for future extreme heat events. Local Climate Extreme Events Aviation Maximum TakeOff Weight Full Text Supplementary Files referencesvgallardoetalv120241126compressed.pdf supplementvgallardoetalv120241122compressed.pdf figuresvgallardoetalv120241126compressed.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Climatic Change → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revise 02 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Dec, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Dec, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 04 Dec, 2024 First submitted to journal 27 Nov, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5506721","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":389684271,"identity":"f2fc39d9-2077-4127-94d9-4639af549ec6","order_by":0,"name":"Victoria 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