Risk Assessment and Source Analysis of Heavy Metals in Soil around Nansihu Lake Based on APCS-MLR and PMF Models

Risk Assessment and Source Analysis of Heavy Metals in Soil around Nansihu Lake Based on APCS-MLR and PMF Models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Risk Assessment and Source Analysis of Heavy Metals in Soil around Nansihu Lake Based on APCS-MLR and PMF Models Beibei Yan, Xiaofang Lv, Tao Wang, Min Wang, Ruilin Zhang, chengyuan song This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5683260/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heavy metal pollution in the Nansihu area was evaluated using the geo-accumulation index, pollution load index, and potential ecological risk assessment, with source analysis performed through the absolute principal component-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) model and positive definite matrix factorization (PMF) model. The average concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn were below standardized background values; however, Hg exhibited significant enrichment, with an average concentration 1.37 times higher than the Jining City soil background, indicating localized point-source pollution driven by anthropogenic activities. Source analysis identified four major contributors: agricultural, natural, transportation, and industrial sources. The APCS-MLR model attributed 34.63%, 29.17%, 25.81%, and 10.39% of the pollution to agricultural, natural, transportation, and industrial sources, respectively, while the PMF model assigned 22.93%, 30.46%, 25.13%, and 21.48%. These results highlight the distinct roles of human activities in heavy metal contamination, particularly Hg, and demonstrate the value of integrating APCS-MLR and PMF models for comprehensive source apportionment and environmental management strategies. Nansihu Lake heavy metals Soil pollution APCS-MLR model PMF model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5683260","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":399095574,"identity":"2c226fb0-762c-4170-a79c-b0fcc9004418","order_by":0,"name":"Beibei Yan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"1.Geophysical prospecting and surveying team of Shandong Bureau of Coal Geological","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Beibei","middleName":"","lastName":"Yan","suffix":""},{"id":399095575,"identity":"1b141492-24b1-4c39-9ba6-47168f5a2888","order_by":1,"name":"Xiaofang Lv","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"1.Geophysical prospecting 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