Do Age-Verification Bills Change Search Behavior? A Pre-Registered Synthetic Control Multiverse

Do Age-Verification Bills Change Search Behavior? A Pre-Registered Synthetic Control Multiverse | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Do Age-Verification Bills Change Search Behavior? A Pre-Registered Synthetic Control Multiverse David Lang, Benjamin Listyg, Brennah Ross, Anna Musquera, Zeve Sanderson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6190162/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Starting in January 2023, Louisiana and 17 other states passed laws requiring age verification for websites with substantial adult content. Using Google Trends data and a synthetic control design, we examine how these laws affect digital behavior across four dimensions: searches for compliant websites, non-compliant websites, VPNs, and adult content. Three months after the laws were passed, results show a 51% decrease in searches for the main compliant platform, while searches increased for both non-compliant platform (48.1%) and VPN services (23.6%). Through multiverse analyses, we demonstrate the robustness of these findings to numerous model specifications. Our findings reveal that while regulations reduce traffic to compliant sites and likely decrease overall consumption, users adapt by shifting to providers without verification requirements. This approach provides valuable insights for policymakers considering similar legislative measures of digital content regulation. Our methodology offers a framework for real-time policy evaluation in contexts with staggered implementation. Social science/Science, technology and society Social science/Cultural and media studies Social science/Economics Internet regulation age verification synthetic control Google Trends multiverse analysis policy evaluation digital behavior Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files DidAgeVerificationBillsChangeSearchBehaviorAPreRegisteredSyntheticControlStudy12.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6190162","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":427301405,"identity":"f18c175c-ce71-40be-8581-bbb9cdcd534d","order_by":0,"name":"David Lang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA8wNEAY7A+MDIMXDR1gLI1QLMwOzAUgLGyla2CRANEEtfLcbGz8X/GJI7G9mflb5NcdOho2B+eGjG3i0SN452Cw9s48hccZhNrPbstuSgQ5jMzbOwaPF4EZigzRvD0PiBmYGs9uS25iBWnjYpAloaf4N0cL+rVhyWz1RWtqkeX6AtPCYMX7cdpiwFkmgFmveBgnjGYd5iqUZtx3nYWMm4Be+G8mHb/P8sZHtb2/f+PHntmp7fvbmh4/xaQEDxjZwjDAw84BJQsrB4A9U6w+iVI+CUTAKRsFIAwB6OEWBJ9ek5QAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5415-0125","institution":"Stanford University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Lang","suffix":""},{"id":427301406,"identity":"2f7c4a9c-e0db-4ae5-b3be-ef51b9d24fdd","order_by":1,"name":"Benjamin Listyg","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Georgia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benjamin","middleName":"","lastName":"Listyg","suffix":""},{"id":427301407,"identity":"2641c56d-b041-4a23-929f-21311befffbe","order_by":2,"name":"Brennah Ross","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Georgia State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brennah","middleName":"","lastName":"Ross","suffix":""},{"id":427301408,"identity":"ed07293c-e24b-4052-8152-3fecc0ee0d6b","order_by":3,"name":"Anna Musquera","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anna","middleName":"","lastName":"Musquera","suffix":""},{"id":427301409,"identity":"63fb3e24-f0e7-4cf1-99e0-41e078653bb7","order_by":4,"name":"Zeve Sanderson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"New York University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zeve","middleName":"","lastName":"Sanderson","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-09 19:20:27","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6190162/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6190162/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":82828298,"identity":"bdee96ed-8419-4d22-820f-b856b149ed4c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-15 16:35:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2282651,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"agevericationnaturemain.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6190162/v1_covered_c5b9b836-d6a9-4933-9a8f-e54a1267d835.pdf"},{"id":78796981,"identity":"f4eb4fa5-adbd-4f94-81bc-b20b0fda4643","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-19 05:35:13","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1421241,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"DidAgeVerificationBillsChangeSearchBehaviorAPreRegisteredSyntheticControlStudy12.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6190162/v1/f18074ab6b3b870d983b89d3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Do Age-Verification Bills Change Search Behavior? 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