Urban structural divergence under pandemic shock: population redistribution and center reconfiguration across Chinese cities

Urban structural divergence under pandemic shock: population redistribution and center reconfiguration across Chinese cities | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Urban structural divergence under pandemic shock: population redistribution and center reconfiguration across Chinese cities Dongyuan Mu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8858938/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban structural change is commonly assessed using measures that rely on the identification of city centers. However, under significant shocks, population distribution and center configurations may evolve simultaneously, rendering direct comparisons of structural indicators potentially incomplete. To address this issue, this study applies a counterfactual decomposition framework that separates population redistribution from center reconfiguration, allowing structural adjustments in large and small cities to be interpreted in terms of distinct underlying mechanisms rather than uniform responses to shock. Using high-resolution LandScan population density data for 319 Chinese cities from 2016 to 2023, we show that city centers generally expanded spatially while becoming less dense, alongside a more even population distribution. Beyond this shared trend, dispersion and polycentricity diverged systematically across city types: subcenters in larger, more developed cities tended to contract or disappear, whereas those in smaller or less developed cities expanded and absorbed population. These findings indicate that post-shock urban structural change is driven not only by redistribution within existing centers but also by heterogeneous reconfigurations of urban centers themselves, underscoring the explanatory value of the proposed decomposition approach. urban structure population density city center counterfactual decomposition Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8858938","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":590078119,"identity":"8eae37dc-f055-4953-819f-140c63fd8cba","order_by":0,"name":"Dongyuan Mu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA3AW/4cDCRU2QAZj4wFcqtG0MBg+eHAmDaSlgWgtxoYP2w6jC2ICvuO9h1/zttnl6c5ISJNIYDtvt7b9MNCWGptoXFokz5xLs+ZtSy42u5FwTCKB53bytjOJQC3H0nIbcGgxuJFjZszbxpy47UZim0SCxO1kswNALYwNhwlpqQdqSWaTSDA4l2x2/iFBLcaPedsOA7WkMRskJBywM7tBwBbJM2fMGOecO5647cwbxgcJB5ITzG4AbUnA4xe+4z3GH96UVSduO57DcPDnPzt7s/PpDx98qLHBqQUI2KR4kHiJYJUJuJWDAPPHH0g8e/yKR8EoGAWjYCQCAICDbpAiZEl2AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Hitotsubashi University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dongyuan","middleName":"","lastName":"Mu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-12 07:38:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8858938/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8858938/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102557687,"identity":"5cbc643e-a1ca-4b8b-b7d6-3b3e84c7dc6c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-13 02:55:10","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3561084,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"anonymouspaper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8858938/v1_covered_49423e85-4fd8-4435-ade8-825b2d22fa33.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Urban structural divergence under pandemic shock: population redistribution and center reconfiguration across Chinese cities","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"urban structure, population density, city center, counterfactual decomposition","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8858938/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8858938/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Urban structural change is commonly assessed using measures that rely on the identification of city centers. 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