Association Study of Body Roundness Index Trajectories with the Risk of Diabetes in Middle-aged and Older Adults

Association Study of Body Roundness Index Trajectories with the Risk of Diabetes in Middle-aged and Older Adults | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Association Study of Body Roundness Index Trajectories with the Risk of Diabetes in Middle-aged and Older Adults YiYang Ji, MeiTing Jiang, ZhiZhi Wang, Xiang Zhang, Xin Cai, AiJun Guan, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8594486/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 18 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Objective : This study examines whether changes in the Body Roundness Index (BRI—a value derived from height and waist circumference that quantifies body shape) predict diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese adults. Methods: We evaluated data from 5,108 participants in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (2011–2023). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM—a statistical approach for clustering individuals by change patterns over time) identified BRI trends from 2011 to 2016. Diabetes diagnoses from 2017 to 2023 were the measured outcome. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (statistical methods for quantifying disease risk) assessed the association between identified BRI patterns and diabetes. Results : Three BRI trajectories were identified: low-stable (47.02%), medium-stable (42.68%), and high-stable (10.30%). Compared with the low-stable group, the medium-stable (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.70–2.60) and high-stable (OR = 4.10, 95% CI: 3.13–5.37) patterns were associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Multivariate findings supported these results. Conclusion : Medium- and high-stable BRI patterns robustly forecast diabetes risk in this population. Body Roundness Index Diabetes Onset Risk Middle-aged and Elderly Group-based Trajectory Model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 18 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 27 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 19 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 15 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 13 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8594486","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":578345118,"identity":"075a1b2d-c3e1-4730-bf71-cc1374ce8fcd","order_by":0,"name":"YiYang Ji","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hainan Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"YiYang","middleName":"","lastName":"Ji","suffix":""},{"id":578345119,"identity":"6ee91569-a0bd-4422-9209-690f551dc8d1","order_by":1,"name":"MeiTing Jiang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hainan Medical 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Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Body Roundness Index, Diabetes Onset Risk, Middle-aged and Elderly, Group-based Trajectory Model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8594486/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8594486/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eObjective\u003c/strong\u003e: This study examines whether changes in the Body Roundness Index (BRI—a value derived from height and waist circumference that quantifies body shape) predict diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese adults.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods:\u003c/strong\u003e We evaluated data from 5,108 participants in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (2011–2023). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM—a statistical approach for clustering individuals by change patterns over time) identified BRI trends from 2011 to 2016. Diabetes diagnoses from 2017 to 2023 were the measured outcome. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (statistical methods for quantifying disease risk) assessed the association between identified BRI patterns and diabetes.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e: Three BRI trajectories were identified: low-stable (47.02%), medium-stable (42.68%), and high-stable (10.30%). Compared with the low-stable group, the medium-stable (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.70–2.60) and high-stable (OR = 4.10, 95% CI: 3.13–5.37) patterns were associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Multivariate findings supported these results.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e: Medium- and high-stable BRI patterns robustly forecast diabetes risk in this population.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Association Study of Body Roundness Index Trajectories with the Risk of Diabetes in Middle-aged and Older Adults","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-01-22 13:59:27","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8594486/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-18T17:24:09+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"237535158479200313669063013292643405190","date":"2026-05-12T01:46:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"157671308799812645394306399000222809045","date":"2026-05-11T12:05:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"139252129524367548933425832918057739100","date":"2026-05-10T05:28:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"244764856349627252713322594048071335167","date":"2026-04-14T13:08:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"306941114794899158045141061220312390641","date":"2026-04-12T14:06:07+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-27T11:24:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"156832324575345640458305725440122598297","date":"2026-03-23T09:58:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"106078300731552620729966719500468219044","date":"2026-03-23T02:12:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"126720491122000778090950940761739998473","date":"2026-02-20T15:08:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"37590325069121474138370607477549579122","date":"2026-02-16T13:12:32+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"116173179273144723572083339162962905328","date":"2026-01-26T00:38:19+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"184119175057125602307447729905471406529","date":"2026-01-21T06:40:38+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-20T23:55:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-01-19T08:46:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-01-15T11:00:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-01-15T11:00:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Endocrine Disorders","date":"2026-01-13T16:50:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-endocrine-disorders","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"bend","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Endocrine Disorders](http://bmcendocrdisord.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/bend/default.aspx","title":"BMC Endocrine Disorders","twitterHandle":"BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"827aa5b1-b637-4bde-a659-047eb075c913","owner":[],"postedDate":"January 22nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-18T17:24:09+00:00","index":152,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"237535158479200313669063013292643405190","date":"2026-05-12T01:46:07+00:00","index":150,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"157671308799812645394306399000222809045","date":"2026-05-11T12:05:14+00:00","index":149,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"139252129524367548933425832918057739100","date":"2026-05-10T05:28:47+00:00","index":143,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-22T13:59:27+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-01-22 13:59:27","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8594486","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8594486","identity":"rs-8594486","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}