A Genomic Framework for Climate-Resilient Conservation

A Genomic Framework for Climate-Resilient Conservation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Genomic Framework for Climate-Resilient Conservation Craig Michell, Sebastian Schmidt-Roach, Patrick Micke, Holger Anlauf, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7572772/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Effective climate-resilient ecosystem management requires predictive tools that link genomic variation with future environmental conditions, yet, translating such forecasts into actionable conservation strategies remains a major challenge. Here, we present an integrative framework to guide climate-resilient coral conservation by combining genomic offset modeling, predictive allele shift analysis, and experimental validation. Using a high-resolution SNP dataset from the reef-building coral Platygyra daedalea spanning the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, we identified four distinct genetic clusters and environmentally associated loci likely under selection. We then predicted population-specific allele frequency changes under future ocean warming scenarios and experimentally validated these forecasts via a larval heat stress experiment. The direction of allele shifts observed in the experiment was consistent with predicted changes at loci under selection. Finally, we estimated the number of migrants required to induce adaptive allele shifts and show that even modest assisted gene flow may be sufficient to drive climate-aligned genomic change. Our findings bridge the gap between population genomics and practical conservation planning by identifying actionable genetic targets for assisted evolution and demonstrating their feasibility through empirical testing. Ecological Modeling Conservation Biology Population Biology Population Genetics Conservation genomics climate adaptation coral reefs genomic offset allele frequency shift assisted evolution Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7572772","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512448395,"identity":"44df4e5f-69b9-4d9a-898e-76f20e702f04","order_by":0,"name":"Craig Michell","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEklEQVRIie3RMUvDQBTA8Xcc2OUk6w3FfIXnLNKvknAQl4BOJYODINSl2LVS8TMEhM4vHHQKyXpQh+QbRHDIInihneRaOzrcH7Lc8cu74wB8vn8a2U+ABEZNFu3Xzk4jQFE5EP432TWQeHYCCVa6Lb5gPQ5Wj0TxWxJiXRN0Uw3hE7n/XSWox7AV8mMTUbxOL3OjgC0rDVhGToICUEtLUKZoScZyw4GfzyyBQ2TU7cltR/FrNslrDfzbknDRHCACi243xV7/IY1zUsCZJWDcU2Qp7uwZ7F1MghRtEvViFBbz6kagcU8J5qP3zz7bToKlapvuXl0/10Xb9NOri3DhnjLEBf5aIRge90isP7br8/l8vh8kIGX6UgQjGQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4706-7256","institution":"Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Craig","middleName":"","lastName":"Michell","suffix":""},{"id":512448396,"identity":"3ba70613-1156-4920-b1af-93f146b3e91b","order_by":1,"name":"Sebastian Schmidt-Roach","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean Revive, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sebastian","middleName":"","lastName":"Schmidt-Roach","suffix":""},{"id":512448397,"identity":"eae2115b-5409-48a3-8781-4995b5ef080e","order_by":2,"name":"Patrick Micke","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8160-2147","institution":"National Marine Science Centre, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales, Australia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Patrick","middleName":"","lastName":"Micke","suffix":""},{"id":512448398,"identity":"af372bf9-0b29-41cf-ba52-a6c3451b7aa9","order_by":3,"name":"Holger Anlauf","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7510-9899","institution":"Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Holger","middleName":"","lastName":"Anlauf","suffix":""},{"id":512448399,"identity":"e5b3bb51-d134-4930-9cd6-f7e8243346e2","order_by":4,"name":"Shoug Alguthmi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shoug","middleName":"","lastName":"Alguthmi","suffix":""},{"id":512448400,"identity":"e2f72def-41e4-4880-b48f-d0fcfe29feb9","order_by":5,"name":"Chloe-Marie Hawley","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chloe-Marie","middleName":"","lastName":"Hawley","suffix":""},{"id":512448401,"identity":"081a59bb-afdf-4278-83f5-8a8627572385","order_by":6,"name":"Marcela Herrera","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6021-3989","institution":"Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, France","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marcela","middleName":"","lastName":"Herrera","suffix":""},{"id":512448402,"identity":"1766e709-0032-43ce-97a9-b668520f46bc","order_by":7,"name":"Marcelle Barreto","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Environmental Protection and Regeneration, Red Sea Global, Umluj, Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marcelle","middleName":"","lastName":"Barreto","suffix":""},{"id":512448403,"identity":"36843cdb-9071-48ed-b79f-57ee4000f198","order_by":8,"name":"Shiou-Han Hung","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"KAUST Beacon Development, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shiou-Han","middleName":"","lastName":"Hung","suffix":""},{"id":512448404,"identity":"1b14c756-c319-41ed-a2fc-64353019bcc1","order_by":9,"name":"Emily J. 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