Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor

Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Global economic impact of weather variability on the rich and the poor Anders Levermann, Lennart Quante, Sven Willner, Christian Otto This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3836828/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The distribution of temperature and precipitation has been shown to impact economic productivity all around the world. These heterogeneous patterns change under future warming and impact consumers not only locally but also remotely through supply chains and trade relations. Due to the possibility of a non-linear economic response, these effects are difficult to quantify and have been subject to limited empirical assessment focusing on direct impacts of weather extremes. Here we show in numerical simulations of weather-induced production disruptions (of more than 7000 profit-maximising producers and utility-optimising consumers with more than 1,8 million supply linkages) that, under present-day climatic conditions, consumption loss risks resulting from production disruptions propagating through the economic network are larger for lower than for higher income groups within countries. Comparison between countries shows that risks are larger for medium income countries than for low and high income countries, which emerges from differing trade dependencies as well as heterogeneous exposure and response. Projecting observed econometric relations of weather variability and economic productivity until 2040, we find an amplification of loss risks due to near-term climate change in most regions. This amplification increases with income for middle and high income countries, while it is homogeneous across income groups in low-income countries. Global warming thus poses an increasing challenge to consumers through supply chains around the globe which needs to be addressed by fostering resilience. To avoid further harm to productivity and consumer welfare the climate has to be stabilised. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics climate extremes inequality supply network Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementQuanteWillnerOttoLevermann.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 13 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Nature Sustainability → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3836828","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":267649394,"identity":"2953c519-4953-4cfa-9998-f491ff45dacc","order_by":0,"name":"Anders 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