Synergistic effect of El Niño and negative phase of Arctic Oscillation on winter precipitation over southern China

Synergistic effect of El Niño and negative phase of Arctic Oscillation on winter precipitation over southern China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Synergistic effect of El Niño and negative phase of Arctic Oscillation on winter precipitation over southern China Xinxin Tang, Jianping Li, Yinan Yang, Yang Zhao, Yina Diao, Hongyuan Zhao, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601541/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We demonstrate that the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO⁻) and El Niño exert a significant synergistic effect on the enhancement of winter precipitation over southern China (SCWP). The enhancement of SCWP under the co-occurrence of AO⁻ and El Niño arises from both the linear superposition of individual effects and nonlinear interaction between the AO⁻ and El Niño. Physical mechanisms reveal that El Niño favors the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation-like circulation, enhancing North Atlantic Rossby wave sources during the concurrent AO⁻. Under the combined influence of AO⁻ and El Niño, Rossby waves initiated from central equatorial Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic synergistically intensified from North Atlantic to Eurasia in three pathways, facilitating the strengthening of a low-pressure anomaly over southern China and amplifies the tropical northwestern Pacific (TNWP) high. The intensified TNWP high is accompanied by stronger descending motion and anticyclonic circulation over the region, which increases southwesterly moisture transport toward southern China, and enhances ascending motion over southern China, leads to increased SCWP. By examining the synergistic effects of AO⁻ and El Niño on SCWP, this study advances our understanding of SCWP variability and its underlying mechanisms. Southern China winter precipitation Synergistic effect El Niño Arctic Oscillation Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 10 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 16 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7601541","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523475158,"identity":"0a98fcd3-da85-4908-97bb-5615660e0fe1","order_by":0,"name":"Xinxin Tang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinxin","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""},{"id":523475159,"identity":"97028d66-8929-4d40-91c7-8d95eaa5607b","order_by":1,"name":"Jianping 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The enhancement of SCWP under the co-occurrence of AO⁻ and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o arises from both the linear superposition of individual effects and nonlinear interaction between the AO⁻ and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o. Physical mechanisms reveal that El Ni\u0026ntilde;o favors the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation-like circulation, enhancing North Atlantic Rossby wave sources during the concurrent AO⁻. Under the combined influence of AO⁻ and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o, Rossby waves initiated from central equatorial Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic synergistically intensified from North Atlantic to Eurasia in three pathways, facilitating the strengthening of a low-pressure anomaly over southern China and amplifies the tropical northwestern Pacific (TNWP) high. The intensified TNWP high is accompanied by stronger descending motion and anticyclonic circulation over the region, which increases southwesterly moisture transport toward southern China, and enhances ascending motion over southern China, leads to increased SCWP. By examining the synergistic effects of AO⁻ and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o on SCWP, this study advances our understanding of SCWP variability and its underlying mechanisms.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Synergistic effect of El Niño and negative phase of Arctic Oscillation on winter precipitation over southern China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-14 17:57:57","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7601541/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revision","date":"2025-11-10T10:00:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-10-06T08:20:12+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-01T16:16:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-16T14:33:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Climate Dynamics","date":"2025-09-12T10:26:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b2c26b3e-2494-417d-8b8c-c7bd84e0b5b2","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 14th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-09T16:15:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7601541","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08116-0","journal":{"identity":"climate-dynamics","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Climate Dynamics"},"publishedOn":"2026-03-05 15:57:39","publishedOnDateReadable":"March 5th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-14 17:57:57","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00382-026-08116-0","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08116-0","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7601541","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7601541","identity":"rs-7601541","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}