Economic Consequences of Dictatorship and Autocracy – Turkey in a Counterfactual World

Economic Consequences of Dictatorship and Autocracy – Turkey in a Counterfactual World | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Economic Consequences of Dictatorship and Autocracy – Turkey in a Counterfactual World Can Karaarslan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6352737/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Turkey’s republican history has been accompanied by military dictatorship and autocratic rule. The present paper provides the first counterfactual simulation of all four successful military coups in Turkey and investigates the impact of the coups d’état on the GDP per capita trajectory. Three different simulation techniques are utilized, Synthetic Control , Generalized Synthetic Control and Matrix Completion with Nuclear Norm Minimization . Although significant losses of up to 58 percent or USD 2109 per annum are obtained, and an “almost perfect simulation fit” achieved, none of these pass robustness checks, which sheds light on previous simulations with less precision and methodical rigour. In-time , in-space and permutation tests are adjusted with variations in the data set and covariate specifications. Data from the Maddison project, the World Development Indicators by the World Bank and the World Uncertainty Index are utilized. The empirical hypotheses are derived with institutional and historical perspectives. It is argued that the directions of the economic effects, caused by the military coups, depend on four dimensions, i.e., institutional configuration, degree of political instability, occurrence of an uncertainty shock and motives of the junta. Two new concepts are introduced to describe the high level of fragmentation and political instability in Turkey, i.e., Dogma of Singularity and unofficial institutions , which are generalizable to further countries. Contrary to previous literature, all four theoretical dimensions indicate no negative effects of the coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997 on the Turkish economy. The hypotheses cannot be rejected. Coup d’état Turkey Dogma of Singularity Unofficial Institutions Synthetic Control Matrix Completion with Nuclear Norm Minimization Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6352737","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":478645269,"identity":"f65eb284-7df7-4512-be39-b26d5ffb87b0","order_by":0,"name":"Can Karaarslan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACZhjdwMBQQZoWRqCWMyRrYWwjQj1/+9nDBj/32Mmb9x9s/Fw4b5scA/vhoxvwaZE4k5ec2PMs2XDOjcRm6Znbbhsz8KSl3cCnxYAhx/gAzwFmxhkSjA3SvNtuJzZI8Jjh18L/xvjgnwP19jP4Dzb/5p1zu56wFokc42SeA4cTZzAktknzNtxOYCCkReLGG2NjmQPHk2dIJLZZ8xy7bdhGyC/8/TnGkm8OVNvO4D98+DZPzW15fvbDx/BqwQRspCkfBaNgFIyCUYANAACtvEjIPagypwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Hamburger Fern-Hochschule","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Can","middleName":"","lastName":"Karaarslan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-01 11:38:24","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6352737/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6352737/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":89635903,"identity":"f9060689-cf45-420d-a358-98833ca51da5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-22 07:17:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2585469,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"IRECK25.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6352737/v2_covered_2973f15e-9b29-499f-8d9b-220906e0e446.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Economic Consequences of Dictatorship and Autocracy – Turkey in a Counterfactual World","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Coup d’état, Turkey, Dogma of Singularity, Unofficial Institutions, Synthetic Control, Matrix Completion with Nuclear Norm Minimization","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6352737/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6352737/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTurkey\u0026rsquo;s republican history has been accompanied by military dictatorship and autocratic rule. The present paper provides the first counterfactual simulation of all four successful military coups in Turkey and investigates the impact of the coups d\u0026rsquo;\u0026eacute;tat on the GDP per capita trajectory. Three different simulation techniques are utilized, \u003cem\u003eSynthetic Control\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eGeneralized Synthetic Control\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eMatrix Completion with Nuclear Norm Minimization\u003c/em\u003e. Although significant losses of up to 58 percent or USD 2109 per annum are obtained, and an \u0026ldquo;almost perfect simulation fit\u0026rdquo; achieved, none of these pass robustness checks, which sheds light on previous simulations with less precision and methodical rigour. \u003cem\u003eIn-time\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003ein-space\u003c/em\u003e and permutation tests are adjusted with variations in the data set and covariate specifications. Data from the \u003cem\u003eMaddison\u003c/em\u003e project, the \u003cem\u003eWorld Development Indicators\u003c/em\u003e by the World Bank and the \u003cem\u003eWorld Uncertainty Index\u003c/em\u003e are utilized. The empirical hypotheses are derived with institutional and historical perspectives. It is argued that the directions of the economic effects, caused by the military coups, depend on four dimensions, i.e., institutional configuration, degree of political instability, occurrence of an uncertainty shock and motives of the junta. Two new concepts are introduced to describe the high level of fragmentation and political instability in Turkey, i.e., \u003cem\u003eDogma of Singularity\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eunofficial institutions\u003c/em\u003e, which are generalizable to further countries. Contrary to previous literature, all four theoretical dimensions indicate no negative effects of the coups in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997 on the Turkish economy. 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