The relationship between summer tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and the first rainy season precipitation in South China without ENSO impact

The relationship between summer tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and the first rainy season precipitation in South China without ENSO impact | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The relationship between summer tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and the first rainy season precipitation in South China without ENSO impact hao Qin, Xiaoli Luo, Danlei Jian This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study emphasizes the impact of the summer tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature anomalies on the precipitation of the first rainy season (April to June) of the following year in South China without the influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1979 to 2019.There is a significant negative correlation between precipitation during the FRS in South China and preceding summer TA SST anomalies. Higher (lower) TA SST in the preceding summer tends to correspond to reduced (increased) precipitation during the subsequent FRS in South China. During years with TA SST anomalies, anomalous diabatic heating in the boundary layer excites a Gill-type Rossby wave response in the lower troposphere north of the equatorial Atlantic. By the subsequent FRS, the Rossby wave response propagates further northward and westward, inducing a geopotential height anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This promotes the formation of a tripole-like SST anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic during the FRS, which in turn excites downstream-propagating Rossby wave trains, influencing the atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. When the TA SST exhibits negative (positive) anomalies in summer, the Rossby wave trains over Eurasia during the subsequent FRS significantly strengthen (weaken) the Ural Mountain ridge and the cyclonic circulation around Lake Baikal. On the one hand, this accelerates (decelerates) the upper-level zonal winds over southern China, promoting the intensification and southward expansion (weakening and northward retreat) of the subtropical westerly jet. This favors anomalous upper-level divergence (convergence) over South China, leading to anomalous ascending (descending) motion and increased (decreased) precipitation. On the other hand, it enhances (weakens) the prevalence of anomalous northerly (southerly) winds over Siberia, making it easier (harder) for mid-high latitude cold air to intrude southward. This strengthens (weakens) low-level frontogenetic forcing over South China, favoring (inhibiting) the development of ascending motion and thereby enhancing (reducing) precipitation. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature First rainy season North Atlantic Subtropical westerly jet stream Frontogenetic forcing Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Apr, 2025 Editorial decision: Minor Revision 08 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6169098","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":447711977,"identity":"42b48c85-f737-4f16-a394-ec6e4f2abcc6","order_by":0,"name":"hao Qin","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfvbmA4d//pHg4WdvIFKLZM+xxMeMDRYykj0HiNRicCPH2JixocLG4EYCsS47c8ZMunCHBA/DzccbbzDU2EQT1MHY3lYmPfOMBA/j7LRiC4ZjabkNhLQw8xzeJsHDJsHDLJ1jJsHYcJiwFjaJBDOwFjbJM0Rq4ZFIMTbmbZPg4ZHgIVKLBM+xxIczgH6R4AH6JYEYv9gfbz5w4ENFnb398cMbb3yosSGsBRkYSCSQohyihVQdo2AUjIJRMDIAAKJSPa5tRP15AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9576-0471","institution":"Guangxi Meteorological observatory","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"hao","middleName":"","lastName":"Qin","suffix":""},{"id":447711978,"identity":"57e7a53d-d413-4092-9ce2-114f95abe199","order_by":1,"name":"Xiaoli Luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guangxi Meteorological observatory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaoli","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":447711979,"identity":"3a180414-714c-40d6-9753-34cc04abc569","order_by":2,"name":"Danlei Jian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Danlei","middleName":"","lastName":"Jian","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-06 09:30:59","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07941-z","type":"published","date":"2025-11-21T15:56:58+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96649974,"identity":"f6866a16-173f-4d1b-939e-ee6603a33f41","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-24 16:02:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1644735,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Revisedmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6169098/v1_covered_9705c23a-8281-4a9a-999d-678e933f1036.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"The relationship between summer tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and the first rainy season precipitation in South China without ENSO impact","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, First rainy season, North Atlantic, Subtropical westerly jet stream, Frontogenetic forcing","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study emphasizes the impact of the summer tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature anomalies on the precipitation of the first rainy season (April to June) of the following year in South China without the influence of the El Ni\u0026ntilde;o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1979 to 2019.There is a significant negative correlation between precipitation during the FRS in South China and preceding summer TA SST anomalies. Higher (lower) TA SST in the preceding summer tends to correspond to reduced (increased) precipitation during the subsequent FRS in South China. During years with TA SST anomalies, anomalous diabatic heating in the boundary layer excites a Gill-type Rossby wave response in the lower troposphere north of the equatorial Atlantic. By the subsequent FRS, the Rossby wave response propagates further northward and westward, inducing a geopotential height anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This promotes the formation of a tripole-like SST anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic during the FRS, which in turn excites downstream-propagating Rossby wave trains, influencing the atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. When the TA SST exhibits negative (positive) anomalies in summer, the Rossby wave trains over Eurasia during the subsequent FRS significantly strengthen (weaken) the Ural Mountain ridge and the cyclonic circulation around Lake Baikal. 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This strengthens (weakens) low-level frontogenetic forcing over South China, favoring (inhibiting) the development of ascending motion and thereby enhancing (reducing) precipitation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The relationship between summer tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature and the first rainy season precipitation in South China without ENSO impact","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-28 10:17:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6169098/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-04-25T00:52:20+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-25T00:44:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-04-24T07:14:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Climate Dynamics","date":"2025-04-16T04:32:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"decision","content":"Minor Revision","date":"2025-04-08T20:15:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7f6bded7-dc40-45cb-badd-074a216d7741","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 28th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-24T15:59:48+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6169098","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07941-z","journal":{"identity":"climate-dynamics","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Climate Dynamics"},"publishedOn":"2025-11-21 15:56:58","publishedOnDateReadable":"November 21st, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-28 10:17:02","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00382-025-07941-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07941-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6169098","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6169098","identity":"rs-6169098","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}