Assessing Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics of Irrawaddy Delta: Remote Sensing Analysis and Future Projections

Significant changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) have widespread implications for the environment, economy, and society; influencing future sustainability and development of a region. This study aimed to assess LULC changes for a 30 year period (1990 – 2020) and project future LULC from 2030 to 2100 for the Irrawaddy Delta using remote sensing and simulations with the artificial neural networks-cellular automata method. The findings showed significant LULC changes in the Delta, particularly for the mangrove forests and cropland (rice paddies). Mangrove coverage was 1,471 km² in 1990 but decreased to 1,282 km² in 2020, and simulations predict a further reduction to 1,277 km² in 2100. Cropland areas increased from 10,550 km² to 10,618 km² in 2020, with simulations projecting a slight decrease to 10,586 km² by 2100. Human activities and cyclonic events, especially in the southern part of the region, have led to barren land and impervious areas replacing dense mangrove and forested areas. These changes threaten the ecological integrity of the Delta and impact local livelihoods and biodiversity. The study underscores the need for sustainable land management practices and policies to mitigate the adverse effects of LULC changes and ensure the resilience of the Irrawaddy Delta against ongoing environmental challenges.