On the search for optimal policy instruments for food systems transformation

On the search for optimal policy instruments for food systems transformation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article On the search for optimal policy instruments for food systems transformation John Ulimwengu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Transforming food systems to deliver affordable diets, improved nutrition, and environmental sustainability requires coordinated policy action across multiple domains. Yet policymakers lack analytical tools for identifying which policy instruments generate the greatest system-wide improvements when food-system outcomes interact dynamically. This paper develops a dynamic optimization framework that represents food systems as a network of interdependent outcomes. Using indicators from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, we model interactions among diet affordability, undernourishment, dietary diversity, greenhouse-gas emissions, emissions intensity, and social protection coverage. Policy interventions influence outcomes directly and indirectly through network spillovers. Solving the resulting linear–quadratic control problem yields an optimal feedback rule linking policy responses to current outcome gaps. Simulation results show that policies improving affordability—particularly social protection and infrastructure investments—act as high-leverage interventions because they generate cascading improvements across food systems outcomes. Environmental policies play a larger role when climate objectives receive greater weight but generally complement welfare-oriented interventions. These results demonstrate the value of integrating network perspectives with dynamic policy design and highlight the importance of coordinated policy portfolios for accelerating food systems transformation. Social science/Economics Social science/Complex networks Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9086404","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":622340972,"identity":"892a83ca-098a-4e36-bc3e-4c271fd19007","order_by":0,"name":"John Ulimwengu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgbmhgMQJjOQNiBKCyNMC1sCcVpAmqAMHuLUMzDPSGw8dLPNJk8+Iufjxy8FdvkM7L2PX+C1Y0Ziw+HctrRiwxu5m6VlDJItG3iOm1kQ1rLtcOLGGbnbmCUMmA0YJNLY8DoRquU/UEvOM6CWeqK1HEicL5HDxvjB4DBIC/MDvFp6HgK1/EtO3MDzzFiaweC4ARvPMTZ8OhgM25MPf845Y5c4vz354ccff6oN+NnbmD/g1dIAZRgcAIY4D5ABtIJNAp8WeTgDqJfxB4SN35ZRMApGwSgYcQAAGNJODjQqf8AAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"International Food Policy Research Institute","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"John","middleName":"","lastName":"Ulimwengu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-10 16:50:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108687228,"identity":"13ee8e19-0a76-4d0d-9fb3-d47d13756c4b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-07 10:12:28","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1135686,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Onthesearchforoptimalpolicyinstrumentsforfoodsystemstransformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9086404/v1_covered_a0e10e83-614c-4ff0-991a-7ac0821d6eb5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"On the search for optimal policy instruments for food systems transformation","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Transforming food systems to deliver affordable diets, improved nutrition, and environmental sustainability requires coordinated policy action across multiple domains. Yet policymakers lack analytical tools for identifying which policy instruments generate the greatest system-wide improvements when food-system outcomes interact dynamically. This paper develops a dynamic optimization framework that represents food systems as a network of interdependent outcomes. Using indicators from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, we model interactions among diet affordability, undernourishment, dietary diversity, greenhouse-gas emissions, emissions intensity, and social protection coverage. Policy interventions influence outcomes directly and indirectly through network spillovers. Solving the resulting linear–quadratic control problem yields an optimal feedback rule linking policy responses to current outcome gaps. Simulation results show that policies improving affordability—particularly social protection and infrastructure investments—act as high-leverage interventions because they generate cascading improvements across food systems outcomes. Environmental policies play a larger role when climate objectives receive greater weight but generally complement welfare-oriented interventions. These results demonstrate the value of integrating network perspectives with dynamic policy design and highlight the importance of coordinated policy portfolios for accelerating food systems transformation.","manuscriptTitle":"On the search for optimal policy instruments for food systems transformation","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-07 10:11:08","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9086404/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-food","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"natfood","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Food](http://www.nature.com/natfood/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Food","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b002dfb1-3316-43ac-a55a-0945570d17b1","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 7th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":66226298,"name":"Social science/Economics"},{"id":66226299,"name":"Social science/Complex networks"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T10:11:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-07 10:11:08","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9086404","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9086404","identity":"rs-9086404","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}