Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Complex Fault Systems: Exploring the Longitudinal Valley of Taiwan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Complex Fault Systems: Exploring the Longitudinal Valley of Taiwan | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Complex Fault Systems: Exploring the Longitudinal Valley of Taiwan Ting-Ying Lu, Chung-Han Chan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561891/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Geoscience Letters → Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study validates several seismic models used in PSHA studies and evaluates their impact on hazard levels in the Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan, a region with high seismic activity and data quality. The Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law, fitting well for small to moderate magnitudes, faces uncertainties at larger magnitudes due to limited data. The pure characteristic earthquake (PCE) model assesses maximum earthquake recurrence rates for each seismogenic structure, challenging due to longer recurrence intervals. The Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates In Fault Systems (SHERIFS) model, incorporating G-R law and structure parameters, forecasts seismic activity for the study region and each individual seismogenic structure. The hazard maps, assessed based on various models, reveal differences, especially around the Milun Fault. The hazard curves for cities reflect varying hazard levels influenced by nearby faults. In the PCE model, the dominance of the Milun Fault in Hualien City is emphasized, while based on the SHERIFS model, the hazard is distributed across various faults. This indicates that the SHERIFS model effectively allocates the occurrence rates for each magnitude. This underscores the importance of multiple seismic models for precise hazard assessment, which is crucial for understanding earthquake physics and future PSHA in Taiwan. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment G-R law SHERIFS Longitudinal Valley and Taiwan Full Text Additional Declarations Table 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Table1.pdf Table 1. The parameters of the four seismogenic structures in the study region. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Geoscience Letters → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 14 Nov, 2024 Reviews received at journal 06 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 08 Jul, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 11 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4561891","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":314288390,"identity":"c6c84ed7-521b-4bf1-9e39-29a1302451a0","order_by":0,"name":"Ting-Ying Lu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Central University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ting-Ying","middleName":"","lastName":"Lu","suffix":""},{"id":314288391,"identity":"4548deb8-f537-4519-a6f9-0d3e3b4bd267","order_by":1,"name":"Chung-Han Chan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAxCRwMPAwA/mFgAxM3MDIS2MDSAtkg0wE5gZidACZhyAW0pAizn72eMPHsgczjM+v/jgwy8GNtH87UAtPyq24dRi2ZOXCHTY4WKzG8+SjWUM0nJnHGZsYOw5cxu3ww7kGIK0JG67ccZMWsLgcG4DUAszYxseLeffQLRsngHW8j93PkEtN6C2bODvMZP8YHAgdwNhLW8MZyTwpCfOuMGWbMxgkJy7EajlIF6/nM8x+Pizxzqxv//wwYc/Kuxy550/fPDBjwrcWsCAsQdISCQwMPNABQ7gVw8CP4CY/wAD4w/CSkfBKBgFo2AEAgDrcGE6hoV/1wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"National Central University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chung-Han","middleName":"","lastName":"Chan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-11 07:01:01","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561891/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561891/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-025-00385-7","type":"published","date":"2025-04-09T16:04:59+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80558213,"identity":"9efb966d-a8b9-4eaa-ae39-be96dc370de6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-14 16:13:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1928517,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LVms.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4561891/v1_covered_6a6a742a-f0c0-4724-9af5-7b7aac310606.pdf"},{"id":59417089,"identity":"0d3d3759-89e8-4666-ac2f-b61a38ab63a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-01 13:57:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":99834,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 1.\u003c/strong\u003e The parameters of the four seismogenic structures in the study region.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Table1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4561891/v1/050ee0a139d7b105ece837a7.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eTable 1 is available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Complex Fault Systems: Exploring the Longitudinal Valley of Taiwan","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"geoscience-letters","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"gosl","sideBox":"Learn more about [Geoscience Letters](https://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/)","snPcode":"40562","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/40562/3","title":"Geoscience Letters","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, G-R law, SHERIFS, Longitudinal Valley, and Taiwan","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561891/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4561891/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study validates several seismic models used in PSHA studies and evaluates their impact on hazard levels in the Longitudinal Valley, Taiwan, a region with high seismic activity and data quality. 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