Continued increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide exacerbated the 2022-2024 global temperature spike

Continued increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide exacerbated the 2022-2024 global temperature spike | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Continued increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide exacerbated the 2022-2024 global temperature spike Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Katsumasa Tanaka, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6492252/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Since spring 2023, global mean temperatures have surged, repeatedly surpassing historical monthly records. Although various causes have been proposed, their relative contributions remain unclear. Here we show that, using a novel attribution framework that combined a reduced complexity model with an observationally constrained statistical model, we recreated the annual global temperature for 1855-2024 with strong agreement with observations (r = 0.99). This approach captures key previous climate variations, including mid-20th century cooling, the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, and the recent temperature spike. We found that the 2022-2024 warming relative to the 2010-2021 level was caused mainly by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (41%, 95% confidence interval: 35-50%) and a surge in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (39%, 23-50%), followed by the ascending solar cycle (9%, 1-19%). Our results suggest that the ongoing rise in carbon dioxide concentration has intensified recent warming. These coincidental peaks and troughs in anthropogenic and natural drivers may increase the likelihood of extreme temperature events. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Temperature spike Climate variation Carbon dioxide Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Solar irradiance Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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