European High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A network evolution approach

European High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A network evolution approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article European High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A network evolution approach Filippo Borgogno, Renzo Massobrio, Jorik Grolle, Oded Cats This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7252650/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract High-speed rail (HSR) is often considered a promising and sustainable alternative for long-distance travel in the European context, aligned with Europe’s ambitious mobility and climate goals for 2050. However, a cohesive European HSR network is yet to be realised. Critically, the planning of a European HSR network requires considering how the network is to gradually evolve from its current fragmented state. We introduce an Evolutionary Network Growth model with Infrastructure and Network Effects considerations for European Rail (ENGINEER). This novel iterative network growth model selects the HSR infrastructure with the highest economic potential, continuously updating network configurations and demand patterns, subject to budget feasibility constraints. ENGINEER integrates cost estimates based on a microscopic representation and benefits estimated based on a macroscopic travel demand representation and is applied across 28 European countries. Our findings highlight the importance of path dependency and the benefits of an integrated decision-making in infrastructure planning. Model results demonstrate that ENGINEER can effectively identify promising HSR investments, yielding a cohesive and well-integrated European HSR network which leads to an increase in rail mode share per trip from 13% in 2023 to 27% by 2065. Scientific community and society/Energy and society Physical sciences/Energy science and technology Physical sciences/Engineering Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 07 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 19 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 07 Aug, 2025 Editor invited by journal 06 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 04 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7252650","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":498902174,"identity":"d21b68ea-b73c-409b-8420-7db754b44808","order_by":0,"name":"Filippo Borgogno","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Delft University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Filippo","middleName":"","lastName":"Borgogno","suffix":""},{"id":498902175,"identity":"cbc1683d-dad1-4926-b05f-78a60a17cf80","order_by":1,"name":"Renzo Massobrio","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABJElEQVRIie2RMUvDQBTHL0u6HHa9UjFf4Y6ALhW/yh2BZEmCkCWDw0HALkrXiEK/wk2uBgLpcto1EJBK1wxxcwjiJZPYA9tNJL/p8e79+PPeATAw8McxAcDg5EdnD8VWhcEPUABg/DflbH6bNw14tKxFXmzjy5knVs+rLYxfw/GUm5tmVzmWL5SkoCKidD0isRsIGbIEyiiaPGQj9bQDQj52IKgMgeDphOM8EJlPkuCaMlFScwo1ilXjXCkXy4XsFQ+va6V8UvbUKa0uBZJEKYxnfq9QXHYpXKUgpWjWR9C3jRRXTr8Lxy65K2ty3xY0QiWbkxuNMpJ208TV+VJd7I23M+to7eP39IqG49QpNh+6M3dgTY9++589oYeNDwwMDPxjvgDWh2uSwD2EEwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Antwerp","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Renzo","middleName":"","lastName":"Massobrio","suffix":""},{"id":498902176,"identity":"ebe97d5c-dd80-4ddb-898c-c4dbb586b985","order_by":2,"name":"Jorik Grolle","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Haskoning","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorik","middleName":"","lastName":"Grolle","suffix":""},{"id":498902177,"identity":"19027b00-aca0-470d-84c0-280beade80e0","order_by":3,"name":"Oded Cats","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Delft University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oded","middleName":"","lastName":"Cats","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-30 12:08:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7252650/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7252650/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34669-x","type":"published","date":"2026-03-06T15:59:35+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104251891,"identity":"bd2c79e2-8a41-4a7f-a423-d0a2ff3f6ca2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-09 16:15:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2229799,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"euroHSRpaper1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7252650/v1_covered_e5e14abf-4fc8-4d46-9051-83d8ab3b681f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"European High-Speed Rail Infrastructure: A network evolution approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7252650/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7252650/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"High-speed rail (HSR) is often considered a promising and sustainable alternative for long-distance travel in the European context, aligned with Europe’s ambitious mobility and climate goals for 2050. 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