Synergistic Impacts of Climate Variabilities on Marine Heatwaves in Shelf Seas

Synergistic Impacts of Climate Variabilities on Marine Heatwaves in Shelf Seas | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Synergistic Impacts of Climate Variabilities on Marine Heatwaves in Shelf Seas Wenyan Zhang, Yuxin LIN, Zhiqiang Liu, Feng Zhou, Qicheng Meng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global shelf seas have experienced unprecedented marine heatwaves (MHWs) during the past decades. Despite state-of-the art forecast systems demonstrate skillful prediction capability of MHWs in the El Niño and tropical regions, their poorer skill in other regions necessitates a more complete mechanistic understanding of MHWs at the relevant spatio-temporal scales. Here we investigated synergistic impact of climate variabilities on integrated cumulative intensity of MHWs (MHW-ICI) in the Northeastern Atlantic shelf, one of the regions with significant climate variabilities. In winter, MHW-ICI increases only during concurrent positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which generate southwesterly winds that enhance warm water transport into the southern North Sea and strengthen downwelling in the northeastern region. When the NAO and EAP are in negative or opposing phases, easterly wind anomalies prevail and weaken MHW-ICI. In summer, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates the relative importance of NAO and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on North Sea MHW-ICI. During positive AMV phases, strengthened ENSO-Atlantic connections enhance MHW-ICI, while during negative phases, NAO dominates by influencing regional heat flux. These findings highlight the synergistic impacts of climate variabilities on MHWs in shelf seas and offer insights for improving MHW predictions. Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files LinetalSupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Figures Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6503093","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":446780790,"identity":"ed449596-8d1f-4a48-b591-3f6f9d5a8e3c","order_by":0,"name":"Wenyan Zhang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDADAxDxsQHK4yFWC+NMkrUw8xKjxeB47zGJnzsY7M3Zzx5+bbvDJp+fvfcAw5sKPFrOnEuT7D3DwGzZk5dmnXsmzXJmz7kExjlncGsxu5FjJsHbxsBmcCDHzDi37bCBwY0cA2agCG4t99+YSf5tY+AxOP/GzNiy7b+BPVjLP3y28JhJA82UABpu/Jix7YCBgQRISwNuLfZncoytZdskgO55Y8bY25ZsIHHmjMHBOcdwa5FsP2N4822bjb3B+RzjDz/b7Az423sMH7ypwa0FCFgkGBgkQAw2CZjQAbwagBH4AZ0xCkbBKBgFowAFAAAZl08YHlMDBgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6239-8312","institution":"Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":446780791,"identity":"941fc443-2bd9-4f51-95fd-0cb79997f9a9","order_by":1,"name":"Yuxin LIN","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Southern University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuxin","middleName":"","lastName":"LIN","suffix":""},{"id":446780792,"identity":"c1804f10-b16b-43d1-bde5-201c48ad17ed","order_by":2,"name":"Zhiqiang Liu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0068-5981","institution":"Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhiqiang","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":446780793,"identity":"12493a8c-33e0-438e-a604-994033f77e12","order_by":3,"name":"Feng Zhou","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4635-9233","institution":"State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Feng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhou","suffix":""},{"id":446780794,"identity":"18e5ad6b-6cf8-4e89-865e-1da89bee73af","order_by":4,"name":"Qicheng Meng","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4144-4903","institution":"Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qicheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Meng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-22 10:10:07","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81465674,"identity":"6ed99463-1a26-49b4-82d3-1b1afc9fdb33","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-27 07:08:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":870464,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Linetalmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6503093/v1_covered_d95d068b-edc2-440d-be31-6db31f251701.pdf"},{"id":81292753,"identity":"97ce7810-8119-4b4a-b4e9-7626ecff6791","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-24 12:23:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1360168,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Figures","description":"","filename":"LinetalSupplementaryInformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6503093/v1/dfd3860623043f3f546d118c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Synergistic Impacts of Climate Variabilities on Marine Heatwaves in\r\nShelf Seas","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal shelf seas have experienced unprecedented marine heatwaves (MHWs) during the past decades. Despite state-of-the art forecast systems demonstrate skillful prediction capability of MHWs in the El Ni\u0026ntilde;o and tropical regions, their poorer skill in other regions necessitates a more complete mechanistic understanding of MHWs at the relevant spatio-temporal scales. Here we investigated synergistic impact of climate variabilities on integrated cumulative intensity of MHWs (MHW-ICI) in the Northeastern Atlantic shelf, one of the regions with significant climate variabilities. In winter, MHW-ICI increases only during concurrent positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which generate southwesterly winds that enhance warm water transport into the southern North Sea and strengthen downwelling in the northeastern region. When the NAO and EAP are in negative or opposing phases, easterly wind anomalies prevail and weaken MHW-ICI. In summer, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates the relative importance of NAO and El Ni\u0026ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on North Sea MHW-ICI. During positive AMV phases, strengthened ENSO-Atlantic connections enhance MHW-ICI, while during negative phases, NAO dominates by influencing regional heat flux. These findings highlight the synergistic impacts of climate variabilities on MHWs in shelf seas and offer insights for improving MHW predictions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Synergistic Impacts of Climate Variabilities on Marine Heatwaves in\nShelf Seas","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-24 12:23:10","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6503093/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"86cf9dd4-6eae-4349-95e2-51bda335f2a2","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":47553902,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Physical oceanography"},{"id":47553903,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Environmental health"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-04-28T07:21:09+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-24 12:23:10","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6503093","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6503093","identity":"rs-6503093","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}