Examining the heterogeneous and dynamic effect of fiscal policy and governance on inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Examining the heterogeneous and dynamic effect of fiscal policy and governance on inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Examining the heterogeneous and dynamic effect of fiscal policy and governance on inclusive development in Sub-Saharan Africa Emmanuel Issifu Fuseini, Muazu Ibrahim, Ustarz Yazidu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8594162/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The essential global discussion on growth and development prospects focuses on inclusivity, fiscal policy, and robust governance systems, as this is rooted in the quest to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. However, the existing literature supporting this discussion is limited and mostly circumstantial, especially within the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which has varying levels or degrees of inclusiveness. This study examined the heterogeneous direct and indirect effects, as well as the time-dependent impacts of fiscal policy and robust governance on inclusive development ( IHDev) in SSA, with a limitation to human development (education, healthcare and wellbeing). The study compiled a panel dataset of 33 SSA economies covering 2012–2023, employing the method of moment quantile regression (MMQREG) and panel VAR. The key findings show that first, fiscal general expenditure indirectly promotes IHDev significantly, at the lower levels of IHDev , through a robust governance system. Second, the threshold effect analysis shows that fiscal general expenditure has a monotonic decreasing relationship with higher levels of IHDev , significantly. Third, a robust governance system shows a monotonic increasing relationship across all the levels of IHDev. Fourth, a ten-year projection from the panel VAR suggests that a strategic blend of fiscal general expenditure and governance system can strongly determine IHDev in SSA. Policy and practice recommendations focus on governance reforms, institutional capacity-building, policy implementation strategies, and sustainable development towards the achievement of the SDGs, specifically Goal 8, sustained economic prospects. Fiscal policy Governance quality Inclusive development Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQREG) Panel VAR Sub-Saharan Africa Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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