Abstract
Hail severely impacts humans, crops and infrastructure. Quantifying future trends in hail frequency is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes involved in the formation of severe convective storms and eventually hail. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency over Europe imposed by a global warming level of 3{degree sign}C. The results reveal spatially contrasting changes with a strong decrease in summer hail frequency in southwestern Europe and an even larger increase in central and eastern Europe. These contrasting trends are related to changes in low-tropospheric humidity and convective available potential energy. Due to the physical approach to simulate convection and hail, yielding consistent trends in key hail parameters, the high-resolution simulations offer novel opportunities for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.
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Geophysical Research Letters
Version of Record26 Sep 2025Published
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Iris Thurnherr, Ruoyi Cui, Patricio Velasquez, et al.
The effect of 3°C global warming on hail over Europe. Authorea. 28 January 2025.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173809555.59545480/v1
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173809555.59545480/v1
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- Climatology of hailstorms over India (1994–2023): exploring trends and associations with thermodynamic indices, Natural Hazards, 122, 7, (2026).https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08049-1
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