Atmospheric Dynamical Amplification Intensifies Future Extreme Precipitation Risks

Atmospheric Dynamical Amplification Intensifies Future Extreme Precipitation Risks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Atmospheric Dynamical Amplification Intensifies Future Extreme Precipitation Risks Dan Fu, Ping Chang, Xue Liu, Frederic Castruccio, Andreas Prein, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6447507/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Extreme precipitation events, driven by complex multi-scale atmospheric dynamic interactions and fueled by available moisture, are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current global climate models with coarse resolutions struggle to accurately represent key extreme precipitation-producing phenomena, such as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This limitation hinders our ability to generate robust and reliable future projections. To address this challenge, we introduce an ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations that substantially improve the representation of key atmospheric phenomena, particularly MCSs, and associated multi-scale interactions globally. These enhanced simulations significantly improve the simulation of extreme precipitation during the historical period and offer more physically grounded future projections. Under a business-as-usual scenario, our results suggest that extreme daily precipitation over global land could increase by ~39% by the end of the century, primarily driven by enhanced dynamical contributions, which are significantly underestimated in coarse-resolution models by a factor of three. These findings highlight the crucial role of high-resolution climate modeling in constraining future extremes and informing more effective climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology extreme precipitation climate change high-resolution climate simulations Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ExtremePrecipSIsubmission.docx Atmospheric Dynamical Amplification Intensifies Future Extreme Precipitation Risks Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Geoscience → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6447507","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":470363475,"identity":"20cfa882-66c4-4079-99cd-29711aa9da96","order_by":0,"name":"Dan 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